pebblewriter

Category: Charts I’m Watching

  • Powell Lays it on the Line

    Markets finally got the message. Or, maybe Powell finally put it plainly enough: there will be more pain before the Fed eases.

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  • Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech

    Powell threw cold water on the market’s optimistic outlook this morning, suggesting that aggressive tightening will continue.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Aug 25, 2022

    Futures are up modestly on very light volume in advance of the insights expected from the Fed’s Jackson Hole meeting.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Aug 24, 2022

    Futures are flat after enjoying a modest overnight ramp.

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  • More Where That Came From

    Yesterday marked the second day in a row of sharp declines in the equity markets following the 200-day moving average backtest and the passing of OPEX.There’s more where that came from.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Aug 22, 2022

    Futures are off sharply this morning, reflecting the lack of support behind the runup to the last two options expirations.

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  • Update on Bitcoin: Aug 19, 2022

    BTC is off over 7% this morning. It has spent the past two months in a flag pattern – a small channel which interrupts what in this case was a strong downtrend. It’s normally a continuation pattern, meaning that the downtrend is expected to continue following the interruption.

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  • Maintaining an Even Strain

    Looking at the bounce since Jun 16, I can’t help but think of Chuck Yeager’s ill-fated journey into space.

    Futures are up very slightly this morning, fixated on maintaining prices through tomorrow’s massive option expiration.VIX: an excellent example of maintaining an even strain.continued for members… (more…)

  • Watch Your Back

    Charts often explain the market’s moves in a way that data can’t. If I’m a central bank, market maker, large hedge fund or bank trying to protect its long book, I’m gearing up to slam VIX down below that dashed red trend line.

    Depending on who’s pulling the levers, it might or might not be enough to stave off the reversal that was due at yesterday’s highs. This meltup might simply be market makers trying to dig out from under their massive options exposure (OPEX is Friday.) It could also be the Fed’s attempt to engineer a soft landing. It could even be the BoJ, ECB or SNB trying to protect their books.

    It doesn’t really matter. The important thing to remember is that as obvious as the bearish case might be, the market is subject to a great deal of “interference.” Watch your back.

  • Retail Sales (Sort of) Flat

    July retail sales came in at 0.0%, a goose egg, versus expectations that were generally around 0.1-0.2%. These data aren’t adjusted for inflation, however, so the “real” change was another drop.

    Markets seem to care at the moment, with ES off nearly 1%.  But, our charts had already called for a reversal yesterday after reaching upside targets across the board.

    With Fed minutes coming out at 2pm ET and VIX still unable to push past the considerable suppression that has been applied at the 10-day moving average (20.51), bears should continue to exercise caution.From a fundamental standpoint, this retail sales report is horrible. It’s disappointing because it’s flat rather than up, of course. But, it’s much worse because it’s not bad enough to sway the Fed from inflation fighting.  We’ll get a peek at their minutes in a few hours, but suffice it to say this bad news is just plain ol’ bad.

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