pebblewriter

Category: Charts I’m Watching

  • Inflation: Still Here

    Annual CPI remained at 5.4%, the highest in 30 years. And, that alarming number masks plenty of data which the BLS methodology simply ignores. Shelter, for instance, registered a 2.8% YoY increase per BLS’ survey-based calculation. Yet observed apartment rents increased at 9.2% in just the first six months of 2021. And, housing prices have been rising at the fastest rate in over 30 years.

    Aside from the games played by the government, some non-transitory trends remain concerning: energy, vehicles and commodities all remain quite elevated. Combined with swiftly rising wages, it will be difficult to put this genie back in the bottle.

    The algos are more concerned, however, with another overnight smackdown in VIX which sent S&P futures to new highs – for now. Pay attention to where that leaves some important Fib retracement levels.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Aug 10, 2021

    Markets are quiet as we approach the opening, with deck chairs being positioned for tomorrow’s CPI release.

    Here we go again…

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  • Update on Gold and Silver: Aug 9, 2021

    The Fed detests gold and silver because, like higher interest rates, they are a stark reminder of the soaring inflation the Fed hopes we’ll ignore.  Interest rates can be manipulated lower by buying up every bond in sight. The Fed has been doing this to the tune of $120 billion per month.

    Gold and silver, on the other hand, can simply be shorted, which is exactly what has happened – once again breaking a significant long-term uptrend and dashing gold bugs’ hopes for a breakout.

    Silver, having reached our next downside target, faces a particularly important test.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Aug 5, 2021

    Still on the road for a few more days…  Delighted to see that all our charts are playing out as expected – with a critical few days finally having arrived.

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  • FOMC Day: Jul 28, 2021

    Here we are again. Another chance to find out where the Fed would like SPX to be in the coming days…and what they’re willing to sacrifice in order to make that happen.

    Our targets for equities, oil and gas, and currencies remain unchanged.

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  • The Beat Goes On

    We’re still in FOMC meeting meltup mode and still on correction watch.

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  • Correction Watch

    This should be an important week, with a slew of economic data and a Fed rate decision all coming up. Despite last week’s leak higher, we continue on a correction watch.

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  • A New Analog: Jul 23, 2021

    It’s not unusual to see a very deep, extended backtest prior to a selloff. In the old days, we would attribute this to malevolent market makers who wanted to flush out weak shorts before cashing in. The same thing happens these days, though it is typically perpetrated by algorithms and HFTs.  As we discussed yesterday, we have an example of just such a maneuver in the recent past which serves as a good guide as to what to expect over the next 3 weeks. Like all analogs, it has the potential to pay off nicely for traders.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Jul 22, 2021

    Futures are flat as we approach the open, off from their overnight highs as VIX crept back above its SMA10 moments ago.  At least the sharp rebound answered the question we had regarding the timing of this correction.

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  • Update on Bitcoin: Jul 21, 2021

    In our last update [see: May 19 Update] we noted that BTC had reached our downside target of 30,108 months ahead of schedule and was due for a rebound.

    The bigger picture indicates we should see a reversal here with at least a backtest of the SMA200 at 39,800ish.

    As it turned out, BTC backtested the SMA200 the very next day – failing to break back above it and beginning a long, slow decline which continues to this day.  There are as many opinions about its future as there are billionaires blasting off into space. We’ll take a fresh look at what the charts, which have been incredibly accurate to date, have to say.

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