ES’ triangle has evolved into a flag patttern, piling on another 30 points of meltup thanks to VIX’s timely meltdown.

continued for members…

The equity picture hasn’t changed, though the rise up through both necklines is certainly cause for concern for the bears.

Note that VIX is backtesting its white channel and SMA200.  Assuming it will hold here and prep for its next run to the upside, but a dip below 19.93 would certainly unnerve lots of bears to the point of ditching their puts – the whole point of these gyrations in advance of OPEX. Note how close VIX came to a bearish (bullish for stocks) 10/20 cross yesterday.USDJPY is apparently prepping for its backtest – albeit at a higher target than we originally anticipated.

Although CL gave up some of its gains overnight, it has popped back up to its former high after testing its SMA10.  Ditto for RB, though it didn’t quite reach its SMA10. The fly in the ointment, of course, is interest rates. With markets already jittery regarding inflation, I’m still looking for a reversal for oil and TNX. More later…