ADP payrolls beat this morning, while mortgage applications were off. The biggest economic data of the day/week as far as stocks are concerned, though, is EIA oil inventories.
Algos have been riding the reflation trade as indicated by WTI ever since April 2020. Downturns have been very few and far between, meaning significant equity corrections have been non-existent. 
As we’ve expected, however, markets are finally focusing on the impact rising oil/gas prices have had on inflation, and that’s irritating the few remaining non-Fed bond investors to the point that a (very tiny) bit of price discovery has snuck back into the market.
If the Fed should ever actually taper, the risk of a reunion between economic reality and bond yields will increase. And, that’s a scenario the Fed would very much like to avoid.
Meanwhile, the holding pattern continues.
OPEX issues again?
continued for members…
Last night’s dip puts ES back below the white neckline again. More importantly, it delays the likely dip to the SMA200, raising the probability that the initial falling white channel won’t expand to accommodate lower lows than the SMA200 itself.
This reduces – but doesn’t negate – the odds that the 3.618 Fib will get a backtest. Why? The falling white channel points to the white 1.618 right after OPEX. 
As we have seen, most of the significant lows this year have occurred shortly after OPEX. This is the norm.
Though the majority of OPEX dates have seen stocks rise in the days just before (the purple date lines), some have seen stocks fall on or shortly before OPEX (the red date lines.)
The biggest such instance, of course, was the March 2020 bottom. But, the others generally fell into one of two categories: to allow an important SMA backtest or to allow a channel/fib backtest.
Given that the pattern has been alternating between red and purple lately, with red up next, and the SMA200 is now aligned with the white channel bottom, it seems likely that the next OPEX (next Friday, Oct 15) will be coincident or even slightly preceded by the drop to the SMA200 and/or the white 1.618.
Note that SPX is roughly 11 points higher than the ES at this time. It’s SMA200 is currently at 4147 and gaining about 3 points per day. While ES’ is at 4142 – only 5 points lower. In other words, ES reaching its SMA200 at 4142 would mean SPX reaches about 4153, which at the current rate of increase would come around this Friday or Monday the 11th. 
We’ll get jobs data on Friday, while the next important economic data next week is Sep CPI, due out on Wednesday. Close enough.
UPDATE: 4:00 PM
Coming up on the close, and ES continues to coil in a well-formed triangle. It’s a consolidation pattern that usually breaks out in the original direction, which was down.
VIX is doing the exact same thing, but on the way up.
I neglected to mention BTC earlier. It has had a strong couple of days, bouncing off the cloud bottom and SMA100 to break out above the SMA200 and cloud, a fan line off the April highs, and is now testing the rising purple channel midline.
If it can break through 55,500, it has upside potential to 57,127 and then 60,757 and ultimately 66,500. If it stalls here, however, it has downside potential to as low as 24,000. Either direction should play out very quickly from here – which suggests a collapse more so than a sharp spike higher…
…though the RSI chart illustrates that the momentum is currently with the bulls.
Had your flu shot yet? My youngest daughter came home from college dizzy, barely able to walk, with a 102.5 fever last night as a result of the flu which tore through her dorm. Since we’ve all been masked and socially distanced for 1 1/2 years, I suspect our immune systems are in pretty sad shape (except as it relates to COVID, at least for those who are vaccinated.) My wife and I got our flu shots first thing this morning. Quick, free, painless, no side effects. Very worthwhile.