pebblewriter

Author: pebblewriter

  • Update on Gold and Silver: Aug 20, 2024

    In our last dedicated Update on Gold and Silver in April, we noted that gold had reached our Fibonacci target of 2466.50 but could have further to go.

    GC is fairly straightforward. There’s a large IH&S pattern which completed around Mar 7 targeting 2557, a short distance above the white 1.618 at 2466.50.

    GC reached 2557 this morning.

    It’s interesting that it’s reaching overhead resistance at the same time as SPX and at the same time that DXY has reached our next downside target.

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  • Jackson Hole’s Clues

    The Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming is historically an excellent opportunity to suss out the Fed’s thinking on next steps. While investors agree that a cut is coming in September, there is some divergence on how big a cut and what to expect over the balance of the year.

    Futures are generally flat as we approach a week full of potentially important Fedspeak.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Aug 16, 2024

    Futures are off moderately after weaker than expected housing data and in anticipation of next week’s Jackson Hole Fedspeak.

    ES reached our next upside target a little ahead of schedule, and is now backtesting the purple TL from recent lows.

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  • Retail Sales Argue for Soft Landing

    In the Goldilocks version of the economy, the Fed is nervous enough about a recession that they cut interest rates in spite of data that isn’t so terribly concerning. That’s what we’re seeing this morning, with retail sales coming in at +1.0% versus +0.4% expected but yet another negative Phiidelphia Fed index. The algos are quite happy, with ES popping up past our 5491.50 target and our next higher target in sight.

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  • CPI on Track

    CPI came in on target, supporting the notion of a September rate cut. Equities are responding as expected.

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  • PPI Continues its Decline

    July YoY PPI fell to 2.2%, below estimates of 2.3%. MoM, the index increased by 0.1% versus estimates of 0.2%. Futures responded positively to the lower than expected inflation print and are up over 0.5% ahead of the open.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Aug 12, 2024

    Futures are slightly higher in a week certain to be buffeted by a bevy of important economic data.

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  • But Wait, There’s More

    If you thought this past week was volatile, wait until next week’s CPI, PPI, retail sales, initial claims, housing permits and sales, and consumer sentiment.

    Futures are off moderately after being up most of the night.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Aug 8, 2024

    Futures are up sharply in a continuation of last week’s volatility.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Aug 7, 2024

    Futures got a nice bounce off the 200-day moving average and are slated for another sizable bump today.

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