Thanks for your patience these past few days. Fortunately, the markets have behaved largely as expected — giving me the time I needed to create a forecast I think is pretty solid.

Here’s the latest version.  Every time I revisit it, it gets modified slightly.  But, this is the closest I’ve come to a scenario that fits with all the channels, harmonics, analog requirements and various other chart patterns I’m aware of.  If our analog holds, this is pretty much what to expect over the next six months.

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We’ve been following a forecast that combines a proven analog, several major price channels and some important harmonic patterns.  One interesting aspect we haven’t looked at for a while are the RSI channels.

Like price movements, I’ve found that the market’s RSI tends to move in channels, which makes it somewhat predictable. Without getting into why it works, it’s pretty obvious that it often does — although I rarely come across other analysts who use it to the extent that I do.  It’s particularly useful in signaling reversals and breakouts/breakdowns.

Consider SPX’s daily RSI.  The nearly flat big white channel is the one channel that’s contained everything for the past two years.  Note how often we had reversals at the interior channel lines — especially the (dashed) midline.

The rising purple channel has guided the action since 1101 in August 2011.  Within it, we’ve had several well-defined channels that made some of my best forecasts possible.  The falling yellow channel between January and May 2012, for instance, helped construct an analog that enabled me to correctly forecast the drop from 1422 to 1292 and return to 1474 [see: New Analog and Analog Update.]

The rising red channel since 1291 in mid-May, kept us on track to our upside target of 1472 in mid-September, and the overlapping rising white channel helped confirm our decision to short the market at 1474 on Sept 14 [see: The World According to Ben.]

So, when RSI channels whisper in my ear, I listen.  Right now, it’s more of a dull roar.

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ORIGINAL POST:  9:15 AM EST

Friday we reversed right on target, tagging our trio of tightly-packed downside targets (1344-1348) before heading up.  This morning, we’re seeing the continuation of the next leg of our forecast.

The dollar, which broke down from its rising wedge earlier in the week, came back and tagged its apex before reversing.  The next move should be to test the channel bottom.

The EURUSD is a little ahead of the game, testing the bounds of the little channel it’s been in for about a month after breaking out of its falling wedge last Wednesday.

Stocks appear well on their way to our first upside target of about 1380.  Look for SPX to at least pause around 1379-1383.   This was the chart Friday morning.

And, here we are today, having reached our IH&S target in the first hour of trading.

UPDATE:  11:00 AM

As we discussed Friday, 1381.50 was perhaps the most significant level in our target range mentioned above.

Those who’ve been paying close attention will remember 1381.50 as the .786 of the 1576-666 crash.  So, there’s an extremely good chance we’ll get some sort of reaction there.  It’s also the .786 of the last wave down from 1391 to 1343.

But, a reaction at 1381.50 has even greater implications.

….786 reversals…frequently lead to Butterfly Patterns that extend to the 1.272 or 1.618 Fib level — 1404 and 1421 respectively.

The implications for the market if/when we reach those levels are huge.  I spent the weekend revising my primary forecast, and will devote the balance of today’s post to what I expect over the next six weeks — which should usher in the most dramatic moves since the summer of 2011.

Quick membership note.

Not long ago, I added a monthly membership option.  I understand its popularity with members, but it’s been a losing proposition for me — and ultimately to the membership.  Every new membership means time devoted to site administration (setting up the account, emails, etc.) and time away from charting.

I intended monthly membership as a means of allowing folks to spread their costs out over time.  While most have used it in this way, a number of members have signed up for it, gathered good information for 30 days, then cancelled their memberships — only to reappear a couple of months later requesting a new membership. Like I said, too much admin time for me — which detracts from the site.

I have decided not to offer new monthly memberships after Nov 21.  Existing auto-renew members may continue their current $105/mo pricing for another six months if they like.  But, those who purchase one month at a time will no longer be able to do so.

For those who have recently signed up, please consider a quarterly, semi-annual or annual membership.  For anyone who converts from a monthly to an annual membership, I will rebate your last monthly payment and start your new annual membership at your next expiration date.  In other words, your past month is free.

I will also extend the Red Cross promotion through Nov 21– meaning a 25% savings ($200) on an annual membership if you make a $100 or greater contribution to the Red Cross (see details on the membership page.)  Obviously, this is a better deal than paying $105/month for the next six months.  I will also delay the scheduled membership price increase until the end of November.  Thanks for your time.

 

UPDATE:  11:30 AM

Okay, let’s get on to the forecast.

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6:00 AM EST

I’m on the road today, so posts will be a bit spotty.  I attended a very cool angel group meeting in San Francisco last night (greetings all!)  And, my daughter Kimberly works at ILM, so I had the pleasure of hanging out with her while in the city.

Today is the day we should find out if our current forecast will hold water, or is simply all wet.  The market began the latest downturn on the day and very close to the price we expected, but the plunge has been more aggressive than the 1368-1370 we first anticipated.

In retrospect, reaching the middle Head & Shoulders target was more important than remaining within the existing channel — as this chart from a week ago today shows.

The S&P futures are currently off 5 points, not terribly surprising after yet another volatile day where prices were weak most of the day, and failed to break out every time they had the opportunity.  But, I’ll be surprised if they don’t open positive.  Why?

The dollar, having broken down from a rising wedge after reaching 81.32 Tuesday, has back-tested all the way back to 81.32.  But, it’s done so on negative divergence.  That is, its RSI is markedly lower than was the case with the previous high.

The 60-min RSI is also bumping up against a trend line off the recent high — after having done the same on the lower end.  Combined, the two RSI trend lines form a triangle — meaning a trend change is likely just ahead.

The EURUSD is also struggling to break out.  It offically broke out of its falling wedge only a few days ago, but thus far has not been able to make any further headway.  But, like the dollar, the 60-min RSI indicates a reversal from current levels.

More later this morning…

UPDATE:  9:43 AM

We got our positive opening — just barely.  The question of the hour is whether the decline is over.  As discussed yesterday, stocks have reached the Fibonacci-driven 1344-1348 target range we established a couple of days ago:

• the 1.618 extension of 1396 to 1474 at 1348.39 (white)
• the .786 retrace of 1309 to 1474 at 1344.63 (red)
• the .618 retrace of 1266 to 1474 at 1346.11 (purple)

A turn here would be perfectly acceptable, since a nice large Crab Pattern has completed.  Yet a tag of the important .618 Fib at 1346.11 would add additional impetus and importance to the bounce.  Harmonic patterns often overlap.  But, when they do, it’s usually the larger pattern — which often incorporates more significant highs and lows — which prevails.

We also like to see positive divergence when an important bottom is established.  Tuesday, when SPX bounced so convincingly off the 1371 level, the 60-min RSI was much higher than it was at 1373.

When the market bounced at 1365, it marked both a channel bottom (red) and a channel midline (purple), but there was no positive divergence relative to the previous bottom of 1371.  Needless to say, it wasn’t the bottom.

SPX RSI fell out of the red channel altogether, and is trying to establish an uptrend (the white channel we speculated about yesterday.)  But, I think it will have a much easier time of it if it can reach a new low (such as 1346 or lower) while showing a higher RSI value.

UPDATE:  10:05 AM

And, there it is.  We just tagged both targets 1344 and 1346 in one fell swoop.  If you’re not already, it’s time to get long. I’m back in with both feet this time, stops at 1339.99 wouldn’t be a bad idea.  Charts in a minute…

I don’t always provide specific stops.  But, I’ll  make an exception here.  The bottom of the channel SPX has been in all week (red) is currently around 1341.50.  A tag on the bottom wouldn’t be out of the question.

While we’re on the topic of stops, the reason I don’t always provide a specific number is because stops are, in essence, trades.  I don’t recommend specific trades because I don’t know your liquidity, risk tolerance or level of experience (and, my attorney would fire me.) The membership of pebblewriter includes everyone from hedge fund principals to day traders to retirees trying to avoid the next crash.

My original forecast obviously called for the drop from 1434 to stop at around 1370.  Obviously, the market had other ideas.  Most day traders know to bail on losing positions.  If you buy in at 1368 and the market later plunges below that level, you usually don’t need someone to tell you your position is now underwater and it’s time to sell.

Investors with a slightly longer-term horizon (including most swing traders) who wish to catch most of the moves most of the time don’t mind being a little early to the party.  Getting in 20 points too high is fine, because they’re focused on a target 100 points higher (not our forecast, by the way.)

As we discussed earlier this week, a great example was the June 4 low.  I nervously posted June 1 that I was going long at 1287 [see: Why I’m Buying.]  Riding SPX down to 1266 the next session was gut-wrenching and I felt like crawling in a hole.  Two weeks later, when we’d added 100 on the way to 208 points, it was a faint memory.

There have been times when it made sense to day trade this market, especially when we’re range-bound within a fairly predictable pattern.   I did a lot of it in September and October and nailed more than my share of targets, including forecasting and getting out at the very top.

But, when besieged by random 20-point swings, I try to take a longer view.  It’s especially true when I’m trying to come up with good forecasts on the fly.  And, I find day-trading exhausting — too much brain damage, especially while trying to blog about it.  Those looking for an alert to every 5-10 point swing should look elsewhere.

Pebblewriter members include some of the smartest traders I know.  I trust our day-traders to know when their buy-in has been breached, and that it’s time to either bail or ride it out.  For those who choose to ride it out and later regret it, I hope you’ll vent your frustration in a more productive way than haranguing this humble servant as he’s busy trying to help you make money.

One of these days, I might go back to managing a pool of money for others.  I did it back in the 80’s, managing risk arbitrage portfolios — mostly with options.  Black Monday was interesting (I had more difficulty calming down my firm’s management than I did my own clients.)

But, in the meantime, each member is responsible for his or her own trades.  I can only tell you what I’m doing, and what I expect.  What members do with that information is entirely up to them.

I have to run out for a few minutes, but will post more later.  Trade safe.

UPDATE:  12:45 PM

SPX is facing its first real test since this morning’s bottom — the upper bound of the red price channel.  There is one minor Fib here, and no other major channel lines that I can see.  So, I expect enough of a pull back to create a right shoulder for an inverted H&S pattern, then a nice follow through to the upside targeting 1380ish — the 1.272 of our just-completed Crab Pattern.

Remember, this is a first wave up.  Second waves can retrace anywhere from .382 to .886 of the initial move.  Since the first wave up was substantial, there is potential for a drop to 1345 (the .886), though I think 1350-1355 is more likely.  Here’s what I’m seeing:

UPDATE:  2:20 PM

We got the reversal we were expecting right at 1361.40.  SPX has given up 6 1/2 points of its gains — about to the .382.  This is enough of a drop to create a right shoulder for our IH&S pattern.  But, there’s a good chance we’ll go lower first.

1350-1352 would be a healthy .500-.618 retrace, would make for a very well-formed pattern, and would nicely back-test an internal channel line.  But, remember, anything down to 1343.36 leaves the upside intact.

The 60-min RSI chart we examined earlier this morning has developed nicely.  The rising white channel I proposed several days ago is really starting to take shape.  We broke out of the falling purple channel and will probably back-test it as well as the rising white channel mid-line — as we complete the right shoulder of the IH&S.  More in a few.

UPDATE:  2:40 PM

Looks like the IH&S right shoulder just completed right in the middle of our target range of 1350-1352 — back-testing the channel line for a nicely balanced pattern.  Remember, these patterns are only valid after closing above the neckline — currently around 1362.50.  So we’re not out of the woods until we clear that level.  Of course, first we need to clear the red channel.

Those who’ve been paying close attention will remember 1381.50 as the .786 of the 1576-666 crash.  So, there’s an extremely good chance we’ll get some sort of reaction there.  It’s also the .786 of the last wave down from 1391 to 1343.

I always get excited about .786 reversals, as they frequently lead to Butterfly Patterns that extend to the 1.272 or 1.618 Fib level — 1404 and 1421 respectively.  Remember, 1404 is the neckline of the recently completed H&S pattern that got things going to the downside (the purple neckline below.)  I have had my sights set on it as a turning point (or even final stop) for this move off the bottom for quite some time.

Another interesting thing about the .786 at 1381.50 is it is in line with two previous interim highs and a few interim lows.  It’s a channel line with a nice pedigree, but let’s come back to that later.

If we react there, it would also make a very serviceable neckline for yet another IH&S pattern that happens to target 1420.  Note that 1420 is in the vicinity of [drum roll please…] a ridiculous number of important price levels:

• the .618 of the Crab Pattern that took us down to 1348 (white)
• the .618 of the 1474 to 1353 (purple)
• the .236 of the 1266 to 1474 rally (also purple)
• the April 2 high at 1422
• the .886 of the 1433 to 1343 plunge (red)
• the 1.618 of the 1391 to 1343 drop (smallest purple pattern)

I will have much more to say about the revised forecast — including how 1420 might figure in — this weekend.  Having successfully made it through the day on three hours of sleep, I’m ready to drive home to see mi familia.  Great charting and sleep deprivation don’t exactly go hand in hand.

Looks like we’ll probably tag or even close at the red neckline, just to keep folks in suspense over the weekend.  I remain comfortably long, and look forward to collecting a free lunch Monday courtesy of my friend Tom who’s visiting from NY (provided he followed my advice this morning…)

One little reminder…many of you have taken advantage of the opportunity to save $200 off the price of an annual membership by making a donation to the Red Cross in the wake of Hurricane Sandy.  I intend to keep the offer open until Sunday, so tempus fugit.  More details HERE.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

There’s a distinct lack of anything positive in the headlines this morning.  Even CNBC has nothing cheery to say.  The jobs numbers are worse than most expected, inflation is so-so, McDonalds is floundering, Walmart’s forecast is gloomy…  Most of Europe is off .5-1.0%.

SPX broke a couple of potential levels of Fib support yesterday — the key 1368.31 and then 1360.33.  I’m hard pressed to find any significant channels to prop things up either.  And, the options data I monitor, while slightly negative, doesn’t show any real capitulation.

As a result, there’s a good possibility that we’ll continue to see weakness.  If we break down this morning, I’ll play the downside and see if we catch a bid at the 1344-1348 level.

As detailed in yesterday’s post, these prices represent:

• the 1.618 extension of 1396 to 1474 at 1348.39 (white)
• the .786 retrace of 1309 to 1474 at 1344.63 (red)
• the .618 retrace of 1266 to 1474 at 1346.11 (purple)

The most important of the three is 1346.11.  A reversal there gives the downside case the maximum flexibility, as it can lead to a Gartley at the .786 (1311), a Bat at the .886 (1290) or a Crab at the 1.618 (1138.)

But, as we also mentioned yesterday, the analog we’ve been following turned in between some key Fib levels, without any real technical support. So, this morning’s rally could end up being the one that keeps the analog alive.

The dollar broke down from its rising wedge on Tuesday, but is still hugging the channel mid-line — going on two weeks, now.

The EURUSD likewise broke out of its falling wedge, but hasn’t really reacted much since.

The daily RSI has reached channel support (in red), but this was after a breakdown of a 8 month channel (in purple.)

Yesterday’s plunge at the close erased most of the positive divergence we had. Only 5 and 15-min charts still show any, and that doesn’t mean much.  More in a few…

UPDATE:  10:00 AM

The market broke negative and is threatening even lower.  So far, prices are moving in a very narrow channel.  So, we could easily see bounces off the channel bounds of 10-12 points.  The first significant Fib level is coming up at 1348.39 — the 1.618 of the 1396 to 1474 rally for a potential Crab Pattern.

Each of the waves down has produced a bounce that failed to clear the previous high.  One good indication of a lasting bounce would be a higher high that breaks out of the channel.  More in a few…

UPDATE:  10:30 AM

SPX bounced, but so far it’s a series of lower lows and lower highs.  There is something of a channel that’s formed since Friday (in pink) but it’s not exactly a thing of beauty.  I’ll leave it up for now and see if it holds.

Actually, it looks pretty decent if we expand it.  Though it shows a potential bottom, it’s still a falling channel.  Prices could stay in it and still decline to 1348 by the end of the day.  Frankly, it’s not enough to get excited about, as it doesn’t resonate with any other major channels we’re watching.

More later…

UPDATE:  11:50 AM

SPX just reached the top of our target range with a tag of the 1.618 at 1348.39.

The .618 of the 1266-1474 rally is just below at 1346.11 and is the more important of the two Fib levels.  But, this qualifies as a Crab Pattern completion.  Together, they signal an impending bounce.

Those of us who went short this morning or remain short should consider a stop at around 1352.   There’s positive divergence up through the 60-min chart.  But, the downside potential for the 1346.11 target remains.

Some may have noticed the red channel in the above chart.  I drew it to intersect with the above-referenced Fib level for a reason.  Obviously it’s a pretty good fit with some important tops and bottoms.  But, what makes it matter is the way it fits in the bigger scheme of things.

The expanded version (in purple) also captures the May 2011 high, the Oct 2011 high, most of the Oct 2011 low and the Sep 2012 high.

And, we get the feeling the purple channel matters because its big brother cuts an even more impressive swath.

UPDATE:  1:30 PM

SPX is making a move. For this move to last, it must break out of the red channel at the very least.  Be prepared for resistance.

I have my doubts that the downside is done until we tag 1346.11.  It would also help if the 1348.05 low had come with positive divergence on the 30 and 60 min charts.  The 60-min shows potential resistance at around 1356.

I’m going to add some shorts with tight stops here on a hunch the break-out fails and we return to tag 1346.

UPDATE:  1:50 PM

Seeing a little strength here.   But, coming up on the .886 of the previous high at 1358.66, followed by the high itself at 1360.02. Charts in a minute…

UPDATE:  2:00

Here’s a proposed expanded channel to watch.  The best case for continued upside is a back test of the channel midline at around 1354.

Getting back to the long-term picture, let’s put some of these channels into perspective and see how they fit with our forecast.

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Today should be the day.  EURUSD and DX have both broken their wedges, which should help stocks break out of the dungeon they’ve been locked in for the past several days.

Is anyone else struck by the similarity of the past three days to that of Aug 31 – Sep 5?

The key to the upside is breaking above 1388.81 — the Point B in the little Crab Pattern I expect to play out.   The key level on the downside is 1368.31 — the .886 of the 1354-1474 rise.  A break means our 1346.11 target is in play.

 

UPDATE:  10:45 AM

SPX fell slightly through our 1368.31 Fib level, but is showing positive divergence all around.  And, DX and EURUSD have both completed back tests of their wedges.

Olli Rehn, Finnish ECB economics commissioner, was rumored to be announcing something about Spain’s possible bailout request. But, I’m watching the press conference, and it seems to be focused solely on gender equality on corporate boards.

Live here:  http://ec.europa.eu/avservices/video/player.cfm?ref=89737

UPDATE:  11:00

Reuters just reported that the Rehn comment was just an assessment of the current situation in Spain.  There’s no announcement of a bailout request.  In fact, if anything, it appears a bailout request won’t be forthcoming, so the markets are disappointed.

While Spain will miss the nominal deficit targets set by the ministers, it meets the structural adjustment requirement, Rehn told a news conference.

In structural terms, which strip out one-off revenues and expenses, as well as the effects of the business cycle on government income and spending, the ministers asked Spain to cut the deficit by 2.7 of GDP in 2012, another 2.5 percent of GDP in 2013 and 1.9 percent of GDP in 2014.

Rehn said Spain’s structural balance improved 5.25 percent in 2012 and will improve a further 2.25 percent in 2013.

“The estimated annual improvement in the structural balance this year and next year is in line with the effort required,” Rehn said.

“Yet there are risks for next year, they stem partly from an optimistic macroeconomic scenario underlying the 2013 budget. There are also risks of budget slippages in the autonomous communities. It is vital to implement effectively the provisions of the stability law,” Rehn said.

He also cautioned that Spain’s budget measures for 2014 fell short of expectations for now.

Rehn’s press briefing can be seen here.  He doesn’t anticipate revisiting the need for ESM/ECB assistance until February.   No Spanish QE candy, today; should head down.

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The futures point to a 10-point sell off for SPX on the open — perhaps enough to tag the Fib levels we discussed yesterday.

There’s perhaps a 50:50 chance we’ll move slightly lower before reversing.  Note that on the small purple pattern, 1370.63 marks the .500 retracement of the 1266 to 1474 move.  Right there with it is the .886 (red pattern) of the 1354 to 1474 rally — at 1368.31.

And, of course, 1370.58 was the May 2011 high.  A reversal here would likely be seen as bullish by most investors who care about wave structure.

The e-minis completed a little Bat Pattern, reaching the .886 of Friday’s 1363.50 to 1388 rally.

My  view has been that either the .786 Fib of the 1576-666 crash (target #1) or this lesser Fib level (#2) — which also represents the May 2011 high — would catch the falling first wave.  I charted both (see the member section) in our Nov 6 forecast [see: The Morning After.]

We got a good bounce at 1380, but as I’ve noted over the past several days, the wave down didn’t quite look complete.  A reversal here would likely remedy the situation.

UPDATE:  11:20 AM

SPX got within 76 cents of the .500 Fib at 1370.63 and, more importantly, stayed above the May 2011 1370.58 high as expected.  We’ve had a strong reversal and just reached the .886 of the 1391 to 1371 dip.  We should see a pause here and put in a distinct Point C before continuing higher to our next interim target of 1403.75.

Just for grins, I pulled up that chart from Nov 6 to see how well the market followed our forecast.  Funny how things worked out…

UPDATE:  2:30 PM

We got the reversal we were expecting at the .886, along with a pullback to 1382 (the higher of the two C’s we proposed early this morning.  We’ll know the rally is proceeding once we exceed Point B at 1388.81.  It would also help enormously if SPX could close above 1381.60 — the 200-day moving average.

I’ve spent the last several hours fine tuning the analog forecast in order to provide some guidelines as to what to expect in the next leg up.  There’s a lot to factor in, so bear with me if this gets kind of technical.

For those not terribly interested in details, I’ll finish with a chart summarizing the next few moves.

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ORIGINAL POST:  10:15 AM

Friday’s action wasn’t terribly reassuring for bulls or bears.  SPX’s dip to 1373 on the opening was largely a carry-over from Thursday’s decline.  And, from a technical standpoint, remaining above the May 2011 high of 1370.58 was net positive.

The subsequent surge to 1391.39 seemed to ease traders’ fears, but they quickly returned when SPX erased most of the day’s gains by the close.  A break out of the falling wedge would be more convincing if SPX first completed a bullish Bat Pattern down at 1375.12, but it’s not necessary.

As SPX is poised for a bounce, so is the dollar poised for a dip — having already reached our Point D target, but still lingering.  While the larger trend remains positive, we should see a pullback to at least 80.30-80.40, with greater potential down to 79.55.

And, the EURUSD is likewise almost due for a breather.  It has completed a small Butterfly Pattern to the 1.272 at 1.2711 (the red pattern), though a dip to the 1.618/.500 combination at 1.26 — in the proximity of the red channel bottom would make for a much stronger case for a reversal.

Our forecast remains on track, with a high probability of some consolidation in this price range before the next big move — which will likely catch many off guard.   But, it’s the move after that one which will pack a wallop.

Speaking of which, several of you have taken advantage of the Hurricane Sandy promotion we’re currently running.  Through the end of the week, do well by doing good.  A donation of $100 or more earns you a $200 discount on an annual pebblewriter.com membership.   For details, click HERE.  If you’re already a member, pass this along to a friend and get 3 free months tagged onto your membership when they sign up.

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