Thanks for your patience these past few days. Fortunately, the markets have behaved largely as expected — giving me the time I needed to create a forecast I think is pretty solid.

Here’s the latest version.  Every time I revisit it, it gets modified slightly.  But, this is the closest I’ve come to a scenario that fits with all the channels, harmonics, analog requirements and various other chart patterns I’m aware of.  If our analog holds, this is pretty much what to expect over the next six months.

continued for members…First, SPX has leaked a little higher than I expected on this A wave up.  I think we’ll have a sizable B wave down next — perhaps as low as 1351-1353 before moving up to the 1424 area.

We reached the .500 of the red grid and the .786 of the small purple one.  But, at the same time, we’re bumping up against several key channel lines between 1391 and 1394.  A turn anywhere in here will satisfy the requirements for a Bat Pattern at the .886 of the red grid — which coincides with the .618 of the large purple grid.

The wave B down is roughly analogous to the May 2011 equivalent. Though there are plenty of other potential stopping points, and it’s dangerous to assume that every little move will equate to 2011.  Although it has fit very well in the larger scale, this pattern has varied plenty when it comes to little details like that.

But, consider the EURUSD, which just made a beautiful back-test of its broken rising wedge that nearly tagged the apex — all on negative divergence after the broken RSI channel.

These are some of the channel lines coming into play at current prices…

Here’s the big picture.

Prices and timing are mostly determined by the analog, Fib levels and channels.  There will be lots of chart patterns and sub-waves to consider along the way.   Where there’s a conflict between two patterns, I went with the one that most resembles the 2011 top.

But, long-time readers know that the 2011 top was virtually a carbon copy of the 2007 top.  The only big difference was the extra four days and 35 points tacked on in early July (those were some sleepless nights.)