Update on RUT: Feb 8, 2023

Our last major update on RUT [see: Apr 26, 2022 Update on RUT] we noted that RUT (trading at 1890) had finally broken down below the key support at 2177 as expected and was headed lower.

Frankly, I consider this a lousy setup. Given its history, RUT could bounce at 1918 another dozen times over many months before heading further south. Or, it could plunge the next 200 points in the next couple of days. Since there are no Fibs at [the channel midpoint of 1710], odds are the drop would be either to the Feb 2020 high at 1715 or the .786 at 1554.82.

As it turned out, RUT dropped 189 points (10%) in the following 3 weeks before setting in the range of 1641-2030 for the next 9 months. In so doing, it has passed on several opportunities to flesh out the huge white channel from 2009, focusing instead on remaining above the pre-COVID highs. What’s next?

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