The FOMC’s meeting gets underway today. Like most, this one seems very consequential. The Street is divided on whether or not the Fed has done enough to combat inflation as well as the necessity of a recession.
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Month: January 2023
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Fed Whispering
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Charts I’m Watching: Jan 30, 2023
Futures are off nearly 1% this morning, chiefly on worries that the Fed might be more hawkish on Wednesday than investors have assumed.
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Charts I’m Watching: Jan 27, 2023
Stocks rallied following yesterday’s beat across a wide range of economic measures, suggesting that investors don’t think the Fed will hike by any more than 25 bps next week.
Futures are off modestly following this morning’s data dump which shows income on track while spending missed amid a 5% annual increase in PCE.continued for members… (more…)
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Some Like it Hot
Q4 Adv. GDP came in at +2.9%, slightly above +2.6% consensus. But, durable goods orders spiked to +5.6% versus +2.9% consensus and -1.7% prior.
It’s a print that might be expected to embolden FOMC hawks in their deliberations next week. In fact, the market sold off — for all of 5 minutes. ES is now back to overnight highs after yesterday’s spasmodic BTFD ricochet off the 200-day moving average.
What gives?continued for members… (more…)
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MSFT’s Warning
According to Reuters, Microsoft’s Chief Executive Officer, Satya Nadella, and other Microsoft executives used the words “caution” and “cautious” at least six times during yesterday’s call.
The stock, already locked into a falling channel from last November…
…reversed its initial pop and is leading the broader indices lower this morning. 
Remember, MSFT is the second largest component of the S&P 500. Futures are off over 1% as we approach the open.
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Better Late Than Never
ES reached our channel top target yesterday – a day later than expected, but it’s reversing all the same.
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Charts I’m Watching: Jan 23, 2023
Futures are essentially flat this morning after Friday’s OPEX panic to regain the 200-day moving average.
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Charts I’m Watching: Jan 20, 2023
Futures are marginally higher ahead of 2023’s first options expiration.
Note that the 2022 Review and 2023 Forecasts are both completed.continued for members… (more…)
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The Most Important Chart
Since the Dow broke out of its falling channel and SPX didn’t, the biggest question on my mind has been “what will happen when DJI backtests its channel and its 200-day moving average?”
Stay tuned…
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CPI on Target
Headline December CPI came in at 6.5% this morning, right on target.
The reaction in equities has been all over the map, but SPX stands a very good chance of backtesting its 200-day moving average. 
After that, we’ll want to focus on the DXY, which has backtested a very important trend line and former high.
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