It’s been a little over two weeks since our analog was unveiled [see: Analog Watch.] So far, so good. Friday’s high came within 6 points of the next upside target – just a few days ahead of schedule. continued for members… … continue reading →
Monthly Archives: May 2022
PCE comes out later this morning, providing the most up-to-date picture of the challenge facing the Fed. Judging from yesterday’s 2% pop, investors are hopeful that inflation might be leveling off. Futures are off very slightly. continuing… … continue reading →
The Information reports that Sequoia Capital has issued a warning to its startup founders, detailing a series of moves that should be taken to avoid a “death spiral.” “Its latest warning to its portfolio companies takes the form of a 52-slide presentation, a copy of which was viewed by The Information. Sequoia described the current … continue reading →
Today’s miss came in April Durable Goods orders: 0.4% vs 0.8% consensus (0.3% vs 0.6% for ex-transportation.) But the real miss on everyone’s minds is the parents of those 19 children who were struck down in Uvalde, TX yesterday. Those parents will have no one to get out of bed this morning. No one to … continue reading →
It’s a big week for economic data, with earnings and outlook announcements already setting a bearish tone. First up this morning is April new home sales, which came in at 591k units – a 16.6% drop from March and a 32.9% plunge from April 2021. It barely beat the 2020 pandemic lows. As everyone now … continue reading →
Futures are up sharply following Friday’s 140-point reversal which finally saw SPX/ES reach the -20% mark. As we discussed last week, the market should surprise many this week. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are up about 1% this morning – par for the course for an options expiration Friday. The Chinese prime rate cut is no doubt helping. But, what happens next week as new and pending home sales, durable goods, FOMC minutes, GDP, PCE and Michigan Sentiment come rolling in? This will be a serious test … continue reading →
One of the many wild cards in trading is the tension between the cash markets and the futures. SPX, for instance, already came within 4 points of our downside target at 3854.90 – which was 20% off the Jan 4 highs. But 20% off for ES means 3846.60 – 8 1/2 points below the lows … continue reading →
We’re seeing more backtesting this morning, consolidation after yesterday’s strong surge. continued for members… … continue reading →
Our analog is off and running, with futures up sharply overnight… …and VIX collapsing as expected.It’s still early stages, but the first few days have been encouraging with SPX up about 5% since last Thursday’s bottom call. continued for members… … continue reading →