Stocks are off slightly as the 2nd quarter draws to a close. The next quarter? I’ll be watching to see whether or not VIX experiences a bearish (bullish for stocks) 10/20 cross. Equally important: can ES really maintain its bullish 10/20 cross indefinitely? continued for members… … continue reading →
Monthly Archives: June 2021
Futures are melting up again on yet another pre-opening lower-low plunge by VIX. With the other factors up against hard stops, all eyes continue to be on VIX – which has already spoiled the bears’ fun on numerous occasions. The last one was this obvious backtest opportunity a couple of weeks ago. Everything was set … continue reading →
June 21 should have been the day we saw a bearish 10/20 cross in ES yielding a backtest of the 3.618 Fib extension.Instead, we got one of those silly, algo-feeding collapses in VIX that sent stocks screaming to new all-time highs and ES has remained in a bullish 10/20 cross. With rising channels about to … continue reading →
Of all the tools central bankers use to support stocks, VIX is perhaps the most useful. Frequently, a breakdown in VIX has been used to signal algos to push major indices above significant overhead resistance such as a major Fibonacci extension or channel top. We last noted this phenomenon back in April when SPX was … continue reading →
Under ordinary circumstances, a 2.3% MoM bump in Durable Goods orders would be very welcome – especially on the heels of last month’s -1.3% print. When inflation is a growing concern due to the Fed’s largesse, however, it complicates things. For instance, might it cause the Fed to take its foot off the gas? Not … continue reading →
Last night’s ramp job is brought to you by the usual suspects: VIX, CL and USDJPY. VIX made a new low, of course, while CL pushed up to prices not seen since Oct 10, 2018, and USDJPY broke out to new highs. The Fed might be further and further up a creek with a growing … continue reading →
The folks running the “market” apparently don’t care how obvious they’re being — tossing a 28% VIX smackdown into the mix to make sure that yesterday’s preposterous ramp job can hold for one more session. What’s their game? continued for members… … continue reading →
ES came within 9 points of our next downside target before getting a nice bounce motivated primarily by USDJPY, which was working flat out to save the NKD from a scary, and long overdue dive to its SMA200. This bounce will be quite important to the bulls, who are no doubt hoping to avoid a … continue reading →
Not that futures needed any help melting down this morning, but Jim Bullard just poured gas on the fire. Yes, Jim Bullard! The Fed president who never had a hawkish thought in his life. "We were expecting an inflationary impulse, but this has been more than what we were initially expecting," says James Bullard. "The … continue reading →
Neither yesterday’s FOMC announcement nor Powell’s press conference produced any meaningful surprises. Yes, the dots shifted slightly, but everyone knows they’ll shift a lot more before long. Futures easily reached our initial downside target and came within 5 points (so far) of our second. But, the real action was in currencies, which were finally turned … continue reading →