Futures are melting up again on yet another pre-opening lower-low plunge by VIX. With the other factors up against hard stops, all eyes continue to be on VIX – which has already spoiled the bears’ fun on numerous occasions.

The last one was this obvious backtest opportunity a couple of weeks ago. Everything was set up perfect for a backtest of SPX’s 3.618 extension…

…when VIX was unceremoniously crushed without even getting a crack at its SMA200.It was clumsy and obvious…but effective.

continued for members…The bigger picture:

ES remains in a bullish 10/20 alignment – the cross prevented by the afore-mentioned VIX collapse.The SPX version shows the rising white channel and the seemingly missed opportunity to backtest the 3.618.  It’s still a potential target, of course, but it would require that the channel break down.

The very formidable opposition: VIX’s ability to break below the purple TL from 2017.On the currency front, DXY is gathering strength again.

With EURUSD still looking very vulnerable. If it finally breaks down, it could spook a lot of algos.And, USDJPY not yet following through on its recent new highs.GC finally dropped through to the purple channel bottom as expected. This is a very important test for it.

SI is still clinging to its SMA200. If GC breaks down, I expect SI to as well. CL’s test is potentially more important than EURUSD’s.

And, RB is right there at the top of its range as well.On the bond front, things continue to move at a glacial pace – significant, but not fast enough to alarm anyone yet. The flag pattern is still intact despite the many opportunities it has had to break down.

Just a reminder, I’ll be out all week and will have limited opportunities to post. Keep an eye on VIX. If the SMA10 drops below the SMA20 again and if VIX drops below the purple TL, the bulls will be free to run.