You could argue that the annual PCE print of 3.6%, the hottest since 1992, is merely a function of the base effect – last year’s crash in inflation.But that argument falls flat when you consider that MoM Core PCE, which is completely unaffected by the base effect, soared by a record 0.7%. Naturally, both stocks … continue reading →
Monthly Archives: May 2021
The Dow, the most easily and commonly manipulated index, has gone nowhere since failing to hold its 3.618 Fib extension at 34,430. It begs the question: what’s the holdup? Usually, when a closely followed index goes sideways for a while, it’s because an important moving average is moving into position for a backtest. But, is … continue reading →
I had an great question yesterday regarding the bond market: “Is it possible the fear of pandemic in spring 2020 affected the behavior of 2yr and 10 yr and then indirectly triggered the crash?” Pebblewriter longhaulers will recall that our bond cycle model forecast a severe plunge in interest rates long before anyone was talking … continue reading →
Interesting piece in Reuters today on Japan’s vaccination efforts and the overwhelming level of infections in Osaka, Japan’s second largest city, only two months ahead of the Olympics. While many countries are making good progress with vaccinations, Japan – the 11th most populous country in the world – is lagging badly. It’s not the only … continue reading →
Yesterday, futures broke out of a very well-formed falling channel for the second time this week. Will it stick this time or is this just typical OPEX nonsense?continued for members… … continue reading →
There’s an old joke retold by Woody Allen in the movie Annie Hall: “A guy walks into a psychiatrist’s office and says, hey doc, my brother’s crazy! He thinks he’s a chicken. Then the doc says, why don’t you turn him in? Then the guy says, I would but I need the eggs.” Isn’t that the … continue reading →
Live by the algo, die by the algo…so the saying goes. ES continues to make good progress toward our downside targets, with the usual assistance from currencies and commodities AWOL so far. continued for members… … continue reading →
BTC reached our next downside target at the SMA200 [see: May 13 BTC Update] and plunged right through to the next downside target at 30,108 well ahead of schedule. continued for members… … continue reading →
Watching the parade of Fed presidents deliver their rimshot-worthy proclamations that there is no inflation problem reminds me of a scene in Mel Brooks’ History of the World. Brooks’ character, applying for unemployment in ancient Rome, describes himself as a “standup philosopher” who “coalesces the vapors of human experience into a viable and meaningful comprehension,” … continue reading →
Futures have given back about 20 points of Friday’s meltup, chiefly on the failure of VIX to break down and oil/gas to continue bouncing. continued for members… … continue reading →