Year: 2019

  • Manipulation is Nothing New

    Yesterday, former SEC attorney Teresa Goody joined those calling for an investigation into the market action on December 24.

    It was hardly the biggest move we’ve seen over the past year. But, it resulted in new lows that ruffled a few feathers.

    Click the image to watch the interview, or just keep reading.

    Goody: …when you have these wide swings in the market, 400, 500, 600 points, 2 to 3 percent, I think that’s a clear indication that there is some sort of a market structure issue, so the SEC will have to investigate, I think, and also FSOC look into why there’s this volatility because it’s not fair to everyday investors, it’s not fair to all investors, really. And it really goes to the fair and efficient markets that we have.

    Melissa Lee and Kelly Evans of CNBC could have left it there. But, to my surprise and to their great credit, they challenged Goody’s statement — eliciting a nonsensical stream-of-consciousness response that rivaled one of the best deer-in-headlights word salads ever.

    Lee: Would, [by] the same token, the SEC investigate big up days?

    Goody: [long pause] I think that big up days are a little different from down days…

    Lee: Why? Doesn’t that speak to market structure as well? If you have the same circumstances that lead to a rise in the Dow of 3% on thin volume, why wouldn’t you investigate that?  If it’s really on the basis of market structural issues, why wouldn’t you investigate that?

    Goody: Well, for one thing, it’s about market loss and investor loss.  And, so, while I think that that’s important to look at too, it’s more important to look at the loss because you have things like the high frequency traders, for example, and, so, once there’s a massive sell off, you have the ability for people in the market like high frequency traders to get out early. And, then, once the market starts coming around, to come up and buy in low, so they sell high buy low.  And, then, the average investor is going to act less quickly than the high frequency trader for example, and they’re going to lose money. And, then, with this volatility everyday investors are very confused by that. They hear “oh Apple’s doing very poorly, or Apple’s doing very well and so maybe I should buy or sell.”  And, the average investor is going to act more quickly to, uh, minimize loss than they are to get a gain.

    Evans: Teresa, I don’t quite follow that.  If they’re front running, they’re front running. Whether they’re shorting or they’re on the long side, either way if you’re front running the public, and that’s a market structure issue, we talked about this a couple of years ago…it’s one thing for investors to…lose money, as you said, but if you also can’t buy something because it’s artificially moved up 10%, you’ve also lost out. So, it’s gotta go both ways or it doesn’t hold water, right?

    Goody: I agree with you.  And, I think that the bigger concern is when investors are losing a lot of money. But, I completely agree that there’s also an issue when investors can’t get in because it’s artificially high.  And, this goes to your point, too, is that what we’re trying to find is the real valuation.  So, anything that negates the integrity of the real valuation of a stock is something that has an impact on the market integrity and the market structure. And, so I agree, it’s big ups and big downs.

    But the SEC and, I think regulators, is more concerned with everyday investors losing a lot of money rather than not being able to get money and the gains because there’s more of an impact there, especially when its 500 or 600 points decrease.  But, I think they need to look into both and this way, also, when you’re looking at a decline, whether there’s front running, whether you know, some traders are able to sell high and start a sell off, and anticipate a big sell or a big purchase, and then they can get in front of that too, so those are issues where you can get more of the manipulation and the fraud.

    On that holiday-shortened trading day, the S&P 500 opened down 16 points and closed down 49 points. It’s highlighted in blue in the chart below.I couldn’t agree more that an investigation is warranted.  In fact, it’s high time the SEC investigate the rampant market manipulation that occurs on a regular basis.  Let’s start, though, with the much more frequent instances where the manipulation results in huge gains in the markets.

    On the 24th, members will remember, Mnuchin called in the Plunge Protection Team — which aptly manipulated markets into a sharp recovery by crushing VIX to the tune of 50%.This is a common occurrence as we saw again last night.  After five sessions of declines, ES broke out overnight and is currently showing a 25-pt gain.The primary reason?  Again, VIX — which was slammed by over 5% overnight and 23% since Wednesday.By all means, let’s investigate market manipulation.  But, if we really care about market integrity, let’s investigate those manipulating it in both directions.

    continued for members(more…)

  • Miles and Miles

    According to Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, the U.S. and China are “miles and miles” away from resolving their trade war.  Moments later, Mario Draghi declared that “significant stimulus remains essential” and that risks are to the downside.

    The twin salvos sent the futures back to flat as we approach the open, despite the support they’re getting from VIX and the dollar. Yesterday, we got the lower low we were expecting.  Can SPX pick up the SMA10 tag as well?  And, might this be the early stages of a rollover?

    continued for members(more…)

  • Backtest Accomplished

    Members, remember to request access to @pebbletrades if you’d like intraday notices of important updates.  Only about 20% of you are currently signed up, and I’d like to use it more often to signal when important target tags or changes to a forecast occur. If your identity isn’t discernible from your Twitter handle, drop us a line so we’ll know to approve you.

     *  *  *

    SPX/ES backtested their necklines in dramatic fashion yesterday.  As we discussed, they had their choice of a gentle sloping path (which stretched to Wednesday or Thursday) or a sharp plunge.

    SPX opend off 13 points and never looked back.  The losses accelerated until it reached our downside target and VIX reached our 21 target — also a backtest.

    The swift recovery in the closing hour and the overnight ramp job send the message that the worst is over for now.  But, of course, we’ll want to see some follow through for confirmation.

    continued for members(more…)

  • Charts I’m Watching: Jan 22, 2019

    Will we finally get a backtest of the neckline?  With futures currently off 18 points, it’s certainly looking that way.

    continued for members(more…)

  • OPEX Friday

    Algos took off following yesterday’s “news” that a China tariff deal was in the works, ignoring the admission shortly thereafter that the news was, indeed fake.  Why no repercussions? Simple.  By then, ES had topped the H&S neckline — stopping out shorts who then piled in on the long side.

    VIX’s ongoing smackdown didn’t hurt either.  It continues this morning, along with rises in oil, gas, and USDJPY. continued for members(more…)

  • Update on DJIA: Jan 17, 2019

    In our last update on the Dow [see: Dec 11 Update] I mentioned that it was coming up on important support.

    if DJIA should happen to plunge below its purple .886 at 23755, I’d sure want to be short.

    As it turned out, we had less than a week to wait.  DJIA dropped through 23755 on Dec 17, and didn’t stop until it reached 21712 on the 26th — a drop of 8.6%.  Since then, it has recovered all of those losses and more.  Is the coast clear?

    Maybe. But, it’s important to note that like SPX and COMP, it is backtesting a point of potentially strong resistance — the neckline of a large Head & Shoulder Pattern that never completely paid off.As we discussed back in December, if it can’t retake the neckline, things could get pretty ugly.

    continued for members(more…)

  • Strike One

    Futures are off 7 points as we approach the open……up about 10 points from the overnight lows that saw VIX gap back above its SMA100.  While theoretically important, we often see these types of moves after hours — the sole purpose of which is to provide VIX an opportunity to break down the following morning.

    Yesterday, SPX and ES both reached their H&S necklines and reversed, with ES’ rising wedge breaking down slightly.  Strike one, but still at bat.

    Our yield curve model is still signaling danger ahead. And, rates look likely to dip much further in the coming weeks.

    But, tomorrow is OPEX and this is a three day weekend.  We know from past experience that both of these events often result in gaps up over resistance.  So, it remains important to exercise caution in committing to directional trades.

    continued for members(more…)

  • Crunch Time

    December 24 was a pivotal day. As we noted at the time, most of our downside targets, some from several months prior, were tagged [see: Throwing the Game.]

    ES reached our H&S target.  So far, it has bounced 13.3%.Oil reached our 43.50 target and has bounced 25.8%.RBOB reached our 1.2603 target and has bounced 16.2%.AAPL has bounced 9.6% since reaching our 144.48 target.And, COMP reached our 6227 target and bounced 14.3%.VIX, which had broken out of a falling channel, spiked up to our 34.97 target on the 24th.Though, if you look closely, you can see that it was threatening another breakout — having slightly overshot its upside target just like CL, RB, AAPL and COMP had slightly overshot their downside targets.

    More alarming, USDJPY and TNX had broken down below important support.  As we noted at the time: “this [was] no way to run a rescue operation.”

    It was no surprise that Mnuchin chose that day to convene the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets – aka the Plunge Protection Team.

    The PPT presumably can’t buy stocks directly.  But, they can direct the Fed’s trading arm to trade in futures, options, etc. which, in turn, trigger algos to purchase stocks. It’s a well-worn transmission mechanism that rarely fails.  Their primary objective was to magically transform VIX’s breakout into a breakdown. In the process of being crushed by 51%, VIX has engineered a record-breaking rebound.  SPX has rebounded 11.4% and is slated to reach its H&S neckline on the open this morning.

    Algos, which were greatly disparaged for driving the market lower in December, have – to my knowledge – received no criticism whatsoever for the rebound.

    continued for members(more…)

  • The Big Picture: Jan 15, 2019

    The rising wedge we’ve been watching develop has made no further progress, but has merely extended as we approach OPEX Friday.With so much riding on whether it breaks down or breaks out, we’ll take a look at the big picture.  One thing’s for sure: the next move will be measured in hundreds of points.

    continued for members(more…)

  • Stocks Pausing…or More?

    S&P futures came to within 20 points of the neckline of the H&S which nicely forecast December’s 300-pt plunge before finally taking a rest last night.

    Yet, as the charts indicate, the latest drop has (so far) merely tested the bottom of a rising wedge. Should ES bounce from these levels, the upside case remains intact. Even a drop to the SMA10 would merely establish a less aggressive rising channel.It’s only when ES drops through its SMA10 that real trouble arises.

    With CL and RB rolling over as expected and VIX backtesting the TL it just broke below, stocks are once again in a precarious position.

    continued for members(more…)