The Trump Rally never made sense to me [see: Why the “Trump Rally” is a Fraud.] Yet, breakouts are breakouts, even if they’re driven by algo trickery and trend followers. SPX’s breakout in November was driven by exuberant spikes in USDJPY, DX and WTI and a historic suppression in VIX, which is at a crossroads. … continue reading →
Monthly Archives: June 2017
Today, it’s all about the USD. EURUSD continues toward our upside target, while USDJPY is pedaling as fast as it can to compensate. As we’ve discussed all week, this leaves DXY at long-term critical support.Thanks to VIX and USDJPY, equities were able to put on quite a show yesterday, rallying back above support as expected. … continue reading →
Two weeks ago I floated the idea that the USD, which had broken down below a long-term trend line and bounced, wasn’t done [see: The Rally That VIX Built.] While the effects on equities would likely be muted by drops in VIX and a rise in oil prices, currencies were in for some significant moves. … continue reading →
Our short USD position is paying off in spades this morning, as EURUSD has broken out……and, DXY is plunging. This should complete the move we forecast two weeks ago [see: The Rally That VIX Built.] continued for members… … continue reading →
SPX was locked in a nice, neat falling channel last week until Friday morning when, after backtesting the top of our yellow channel for the eleventy billionth time, two fairly common things happened: a rising channel for VIX suddenly broke down… …and, USDJPY “broke out” of the falling channel it’s been in since Dec 8. … continue reading →
After a drop to our downside target Wednesday, we were rewarded with a rise to our bounce target on Thursday. It was an ugly close, but one which left SPX right at tentative support. It’s a good thing we have VIX to tell us whether or not stocks will be actively supported, today. Is the … continue reading →
After EIA’s modestly bullish inventory report came out, yesterday, WTI dithered for a moment before heading higher. I was prepared to throw in the towel on our 42.11 downside target when its rally reversed at the exact price it needed to in order for me to quickly regain my confidence. The yellow arrow marks the … continue reading →
All eyes remain on oil, this morning. With the EIA inventory report coming out, we shouldn’t have to wait long for the final capitulation. Futures are getting a jump start, as ES has rallied 10 points — back to even – on a sudden spike in USDJPY back to channel resistance.SPX got within 2 points … continue reading →
Last Thursday we noted that WTI was approaching an important line in the sand, the neckline of a Head & Shoulders Pattern that could spell real trouble for oil prices. From Oil’s Dangerous Game: So, it’s no surprise that equities are panicking just a little this morning, as CL is pennies away from completing a … continue reading →
With the FOMC, BoJ and ECB actions behind us, this seems like a good time to review the big picture. This morning’s USDJPY, VIX and CL moves are, perhaps, the perfect reminder for how we got here, and where we’re going. Note the strong correlation between USDJPY and ES broke down on May 24 when … continue reading →