Stocks shed over 1% yesterday, easily reaching our initial two targets and almost our third before being rescued. it was the biggest drop we’ve seen in quite some time. A little over an hour into the session, VIX decided it had had quite enough. It plunged 8.8% from its intraday highs…just because. And, SPX closed … continue reading →
Monthly Archives: January 2017
CL is on the verge of rolling over, even as the ramp in USDJPY that helped prop up markets on Thursday and Friday is settling back for at least a backtest. The net result is that we’re finally getting some follow-though to the sell off we anticipated last week. Futures are currently off about 8 points, … continue reading →
The economic headlines are ugly this morning, with durable goods off 0.4% versus the 3-4% gain expected. The chief culprit, of course: trade. Funny how no one wants to buy US goods and services when the dollar is higher than it’s been since 2002 — oh, and we’re launching a trade war against the rest … continue reading →
Today will be a continuation of yesterday’s Big Picture update, with a focus on the continuing relevancy of our analog from last August. continued for members… … continue reading →
Yesterday, I laid out the primary drivers of the rally that’s gripped stocks since election night: USDJPY, VIX and CL. As luck would have it, we were immediately rewarded with an affirmation of those dynamics: SPX rallied another 15 points on a 1% USDJPY gain, a 1.7% CL gain, and VIX being smashed by 4.25% … continue reading →
Once in a while, the normally pro-status quo Wall Street Journal surprises me and publishes an article questioning the underlying health of the market. In BOJ Helps Tokyo Stocks to Soar, it published an internal study indicating that 97% of the days the Bank of Japan invested money in stocks were days that the market either … continue reading →
It’s been a lousy environment for trading the last 5-6 weeks. Although SPX closed Friday exactly where our Jan 27 (Day 141) target was set, there have been very few dips since early December that provided in much in the way of trading opportunities — unless you enjoy mindless, intraday dip-buying. Those who trade after-hours have … continue reading →
As a chartist and technical analyst, I spend an inordinate amount of time thinking about how and why prices get where they’re going. Like most who forecast markets every day, I gave up on the random walk hypothesis a long time ago. It’s simply not consistent with the evidence splayed across my monitors every single day. Goldman Sachs’ recent breakout is … continue reading →
VIX has been playing cat and mouse with traders for months, now. We’ve seen numerous head-fakes — breakouts which might have signaled sell-offs, that were quickly slammed back down below overhead resistance. As I wrote last month [VIX: Just Another Tool], this has become the norm for this once reliable indicator of risk in the markets. So, … continue reading →
Between gas, rent and health care, official CPI rose 0.3% in December and 2.1% from a year ago. It’s the highest since June 2014, and just a tad below the 2012 highs. Of course, the official CPI data are as legit as employment data — which is to say “Not!” For more, see John Williams’ explanation … continue reading →