Crunch Time

The past few years have demonstrated how easily stock prices can be manipulated higher.  Whether by direct central bank buying as is practiced by the BoJ and SNB, or indirect actions such as the Fed’s timely interventions in VIX, traders no longer question it.  “Buy the f-ing dip” has gone from a humorous quip to a legitimate investment strategy.

Such was the case yesterday when, moments after the second strongly bearish inventory report in two days, the Russian energy minister announced that he sees “big chances” for OPEC to agree on an output deal.

2016-11-17-cl-60-0600Coupled with concerted buying in the futures market — an investment — CL broke out of the falling purple channel it’s been in since mid-October where it now sits atop the SMA100 and SMA200.

SPX, which was in the midst of a backtest of a falling channel that dates back to Brexit, popped out of the backtest and retested an important Fib level.  As seen here on the e-minis, the levitation has continued overnight on repeated rumors of an impending deal.2016-11-17-es-v-usdjpy-schizoSuch is the nature of today’s “market” when, once again, traders must question whether or not prices will ever again be allowed to swing freely.

Now, it’s crunch time for the manipulators.  With the bond market melting down, and the US dollar hitting our breakout threshhold, it’s time to put up or shut up.

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