There’s one theme that’s characterized this “market” for the past six weeks since Brexit: push a little here, pull a little there — always just enough to keep it on an upward trajectory. Yesterday, it was a USD breakout [see: Manufacturing a Breakout] that kept prices high enough into the end of the month. Nicely done, Fed jawboners. But, … continue reading →
Monthly Archives: August 2016
Last week [see: Oil Takes a Breather] we identified key support for CL at 45.34. At the time, that represented a nifty intersection of the SMA100 and the top of the broken white falling channel. It looked likely to happen within a few days. And, CL was kind enough to trace out a well-formed falling channel … continue reading →
Another day, another Fed official jawboning the dollar higher. Gee, you’d think they’re trying to get it to break out or something… The US dollar has been heavily manipulated over the past year. We’ve covered the “why.” As an importing nation, the US needs the things it buys to remain relatively cheap or the “we … continue reading →
For now, it appears as though the Fed won the battle without having to fire a single shot. Expectations of a September hike have doubled, the US dollar has pulled out of its nosedive and futures are back in the green (by 1 point, but green.) To the casual observer, it would appear that they must have … continue reading →
When we looked at gold last April, we saw upside potential to 1380 [see: Update on GC: Apr 8, 2016.] If it breaks above 1246, then the purple .618 at 1257 is a gimme. From there, we have potential resistance at 1270, which is also about where the purple midline currently resides.If it breaks above the purple … continue reading →
Will they, or won’t they? Even under tenacious grilling by the MSM, the Federales haven’t given much guidance as to whether they’ll hold the line in September. We have our own thoughts on the matter, which informs our analog [see: A New Analog: Aug 3, 2016.] It’s still (drumroll, please) on track. But, today marks one … continue reading →
We’ve seen a lot of interpretations of the bad news/good news story over the past five years. We’ve become inured to the idea that bad news is good, because it ensures continued central bank easing — which is supposedly good for the “markets.” So, with ever louder cries for rate and policy normalization, and all eyes on … continue reading →
With oil on track to our downside target, it suddenly shot up 4% from its overnight lows on rumors which were immediately proven false while failing to drop even a little on quite bearish API inventory. What else is new? While SPX broke out of the tightest falling channel it had going, it still failed … continue reading →
Last December I slapped a couple of upside targets as well as a downside target on the NYSE index and pretty much forgot about it [see: Update on NYSE Dec 29, 2015.] I’m not a fan, as it regularly ignores chart and harmonic patterns. But, at the time, a large H&S Pattern promised significant downside if NYA wasn’t able … continue reading →
It was a pretty quiet night, yet the futures still managed to levitate 15 points off their lows for no particular reason. CL continues its decline, and is about 2/3 of the way to our downside target. USDJPY, which hugged the underside of a rising TL all day yesterday, broke down overnight. And, VIX is just … continue reading →