It was a pretty quiet night, yet the futures still managed to levitate 15 points off their lows for no particular reason. CL continues its decline, and is about 2/3 of the way to our downside target. USDJPY, which hugged the underside of a rising TL all day yesterday, broke down overnight. And, VIX is just a mess.
The problem is the Nikkei, which spiked 130 points last night, only to almost immediately plunge 215 points before returning to its starting point. Talk about mixed signals…
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continued for members…
A reminder, I’ll be out of the office for most of the day.
The eminis are currently up 6 points, and appear as though they could make new highs (SPX would need to pile on 11 points), so we’ll look for SPX to bust the falling white channel whose top it played cat and mouse with all afternoon yesterday. I’ve redrawn it as a red channel that technically still has a chance to reach the .618 at 2165 today, though it’s a stretch.
It would need to reverse by about 2189 in order for the red channel to remain intact. There’s also an argument for any serious downside, if it’s to happen, to wait until Thursday.
