Suppose a neighborhood kid was seen deliberately throwing a brick through an expensive plate glass window in your home. Following a serious discussion with and full reimbursement from the kid’s parents, things might eventually get back to normal. If the parents are thinking straight, the little runt might even be responsible for working off the expense of the repair. But, you probably wouldn’t go around singing the kid’s praises.
So it is with Trump’s trade war with China — except the window is still broken, the kid who broke it is blaming the brick for the damage, he’ll never have to pay for it, he’s going around bragging about how great it’s going to look when it is repaired, and the whole neighborhood is throwing him a big party because he promised not to throw any more bricks — at least for the next few months.
Futures were up as much as 55 points earlier, and are still up 42 points (1.52%.)
More importantly, important resistance will be broken on this morning’s gap higher. Is it time to celebrate?
continued for members…
The picture for stocks:
SPX will leapfrog its SMA200 on the open. If it can maintain any momentum at all, the SMA100 and .618 should also be tested. If it can’t, look for an immediate backtest of the SMA200 at 2761.88.
ES did the same earlier.
COMP’s downside potential just got trashed. Chances are it will top its SMA200. 
…which the DJIA has already accomplished. 
VIX’s SMA50 broke down, along with its latest rising channel. Here, it faces the important test of its SMA200.
Note that the last time VIX bounced off its SMA200 (Nov 8), ES dropped by 189 points!
The currency picture:
The dollar is hanging in there despite the Fed’s shift toward dovishness last week.
Most importantly, USDJPY is holding trend…sort of.
And, oil and gas are maintaining their bounce despite troubles in the OPEC family which should increase, not decrease, supply.
And, the bond picture:
UPDATE: 1:00 PM
SPX is pretty clearly going for the SMA200 backtest — probably tomorrow morning. It’s interesting that COMP couldn’t quite reach its SMA200 and DJIA couldn’t quite break out of its falling wedge. Makes me think the bearish case isn’t quite vanquished…
