Futures have erased 40 points of overnight losses on the latest Statline vaccine news, this time involving Pfizer. As usual, it’s early stages on a limited number of trials. And, as usual, it’s coming in the hour just prior to the market open after futures had dropped below significant support.
We’ve seen this movie before. This is the 2020 version of 2019’s “China Trade Deal is Done!” Chase it at your own risk.
continued for members…
The bigger picture for stocks. The falling channels are starting to take shape, though a strong rally today could change the trajectory a bit. Keep an eye on ES’ purple dotted TL at around 3095.50, the yellow channel midline around 3108, and the channel top around 3122. Obviously, pushing above 3000 would be a plus for the bullish case.
SPX’s channel is starting to look a lot better, but will depend on not making/holding new highs today.
As discussed after the close yesterday, VIX found support at an important channel line. Holding this line (29.38ish) greatly boosts the bearish case for stocks.
The yellow arrow below marks the red channel line. 
On the currency front, USDJPY has backtested the broken white channel as expected and has broken back below a little red TL off recent lows. The key will be dropping back through the SMA10 at 107.16.
EURUSD is trending sideways in the well-constructed falling channel which intersects with its SMA200 betweem Jul 9-13. 
When it breaks down, DXY can finally make some headway.
Gold, which came within 16 of our 1823.60 target yesterday, has backed off by about 1%.
Oil and gas are both back above their red TLs and are holding their ground thus far. The bottom of their rising channels from March has almost caught up with them, meaning any drops should be shallower unless a nasty breakdown occurs.
On the bond front, the latest 2s10s breakdown has seemingly repaired itself…
…but is actually just backtesting the yellow TL.
UPDATE: 3:50 PM
ES is closing in on our channel top target – probably close enough if it’s going to reverse, which I believe it will.
Be aware that VIX is still a potential party pooper for the bears.
Pretty much everything else is in a holding pattern with no obvious bullish leanings.
more later…