More Hostgator problems this morning — third day in a row.  I thought things were resolved yesterday after two hours on the phone with them…apparently not.  Gladly accepting any recommendations for a new hosting company.  Anyone out there really, really happy with theirs?  Please contact me directly.

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I’m watching both USDJPY and CL break trend this morning, selling off after a supposedly bullish employment report.  But, VIX’s 10.4% decline from yesterday’s highs is offsetting both, ramping ES by nearly .50%.  Is VIX the only tool that matters any more?continued for members…

ES’ break out…

…even as CL breaks down……and, USDJPY’s threatened breakout fails at a critical juncture.Look for SPX to break out of its triangle on the opening. UPDATE:  10:34 AM

The site seems to be working okay for the moment.  My apologies for these tech issues — rather frustrating forUP me, too.  I’ll focus on it this weekend.

So, CL broke down, but has now broken back above the purple TL in order to keep momentum going.  VIX is still edging lower, but is up against the yellow channel bottom.  We’ll see if it holds this time.ES has backtested the white TL that saw it reverse Wednesday and last week before it broke above.  SPX has completed a not-so-well-formed Gartley, but the SMA5 10 is coming along in a few minutes and could provide algo support on up to the .886 or higher.

I see no particular problem in playing along on the long side, but I’m not sure I trust this breakout as: (1) USDJPY is still faltering and is likely headed to 109.92, (2) that yellow channel bottom in VIX, and (3) I don’t trust the CL rally.

Bottom line, keep your stops where you’re comfortable and watch 2297.14 closely.

UPDATE:  10:48 AM

While SPX’s pattern is sloppy, ES has completed a Gartley at the .786 of 2291.53.  I’d take a chance on a short position here.  With the previous high at 2300.99, the risk/reward is decent.  Just keep an eye on VIX, which could easily send SPX higher with a plunge to the bottom of the purple channel. UPDATE:  11:08 AM

VIX is threatening a breakdown as USDJPY gets a bounce — enough to offset CL’s falter?  They’ll probably get SPX above the ,886 and potentially a new high.  Watch your stops. UPDATE:  12:24 PM

Here goes VIX again.  I’d dump the short and revert to cash here.  Long would also make sense, but ES’ .886 is only 3 points higher, so it could be very short-lived.  It could be a head fake, so I’d be quick to short on any drop through the SMA5 10 currently at 2296. UPDATE:  1:06 PM

SPX rolling over here.  Support is at 2293, but if that fails we could see the SMA5 200 / SMA10 cross at 2282.65.  As always, keep an eye on VIX.  If it continues to leak lower, SPX will break back above the SMA5 10 and the downside potential is ruined.UPDATE:  2:26 PM

I have to run a quick errand, will be back in 20 minutes.  SPX is still looking a little weak…UPDATE:  3:10 PM

VIX is back in plunge mode, off 10% for the day and 13.4% from yesterday’s highs.  This has left SPX slightly above the .886, with ES 2 1/2 below its.  Is it BS?  Absolutely.  Will it hold? I don’t know.

Our analog said day 141 should have been a lower high, not a higher high as we had last Thursday.  The subsequent several days should have seen a sharp sell-off, not threatening new highs. The 2007 top……and, the current top, showing two “breakouts” in a row, each driven almost solely by VIX, but with help from CL and USDJPY’s intraday ramps (which haven’t held their highs, but are merely recycling their gains day after day.)If SPX doesn’t pop through 2300.99 into the close, there’s a decent chance it’ll backtest the red channel next week, possibly around 2253 or even 2229 on Feb 10 or 13.  That would absolutely require that CL break down big time and a pop by VIX up to at least the .786 or .886.  The SMA200 is currently 14.02, just below the .886 at 14.14.