WTI reached our 74 target back on Nov 19, even overshooting it slightly before rebounding to backtest its 200-day moving average. All of this was as expected, as is the latest tumble.

We sympathize with the fundamental analysts who can’t square these price movements with the very upsetting geopolitical unrest. But, oil/gas prices are some of the most important levers for central bankers bent on controlling inflation and interest rates.

Futures are up modestly this morning as we head into the holiday weekend.

continued for members…

We’re still on the lookout for a potential drop to establish an IH&S in the next few days. I’d give it a 50-50 shot. As much as I like the IH&S theory – and I’m sure it’s at least being discussed – VIX is gapping down this morning. It’s either a sign that the meltup will continue or a pretty effective head fake to ensure that very few people play along on a 4% downturn.Currencies are pretty quiet this morning.

The action is in oil/gas, which are tumbling anew. I still see a good likelihood that CL tags the bottom of the rising purple channel…

…and that RB tags its. There’s no better way to get TNX even lower – if a breakdown is in the cards.This is quite important, as a breakdown would potentially keep the 2s10s from breaking down – usually cause for at least a mild equity correction.

Just a reminder…there won’t be a post on Thursday or Friday. Wishing everyone a wonderful Thanksgiving!