The Fed will release minutes today, ostensibly providing some insight into their recent thinking. I tend not to get too excited about these, as they are even more carefully parsed that Powell’s remarks to ensure investors algos don’t panic and run for the exits.

But, the Fed doesn’t really want a knee jerk meltup that undoes its inflation fighting efforts either. So, it’s a balancing act of sorts – only there is reason for a backtest at this point.

There’s an opportunity for the bulls to execute an inverted Head & Shoulders pattern if they can take their feet off the gas for a few days and allow a 4-5% pullback. Any takers out there?

continued for members…The ideal pullback spot would be the SMA50 at ES 4375ish, though 4425 would also work, setting up a neckline at yesterday’s highs and an upside target of 5020ish. The easiest way would be to allow VIX to push up above its SMA10 for the first time since October.  It would also make sense foor EURUSD to reverse here and/or for USDJPY to break down and backtest its SMA200. Note that DXY has dropped through its SMA200, not a good development for a country trying to bring inflation down. It’s time for it to make a stand.CL has completed its backtest of its SMA200 and should continue its breakdown……while RB’s push higher yesterday was, as expected, a headfake.If the Fed really wants to slow the market’s ascent and dampen the wealth effect, they’ll allow horizontal support to buoy the 10Y here. It’s in danger of breaking down, which would likely be highly bullish for stocks. On the other hand, the 2Y is still rolling over and the 2s10s is boxed in: a breakdown is bearish, but a rise through 0 would be quite bearish. Stay tuned…