In our September update, I noted that NYA had plunged below a year-old channel bottom, only to reach the bottom of an even longer-term channel — seen below in white. It struggled for over a month to climb back above the shorter-term channel bottom.  Finally, in early October, it gapped back above.  Now, it’s found new potential resistance.

continued for members...It all boils down to which channel will ultimately hold.  NYA has climbed back above the falling purple midline, the top of which could easily signal the red .786 or .886.

However, it’ll first have to break out of the falling green channel.  Then, there’s the issue of that red channel — which I’ve expanded to better incorporate the recent bottom.

It’s not exactly a thing of beauty.  But, Friday’s high is pretty clearly on a line with several previous lows.  And, note that it has reached the white .618 — a common target after 1.272 extension tags.

We have FOMC and BoJ meetings this week.  And, it would be surprising if they don’t take action to push NYA and every other index through obvious resistance.  If, on the other hand, they should disappoint, then the purple .886 at 9040 (which overlaps the white .786) is a pretty solid downside target.

Stay tuned.