Gold has fallen 4.7% since our last top call [see: Apr 11 Update on Gold], coming close enough (as far as I’m concerned) to our 1300 target to take profits.
I’d pull the plug or at least enter stops here at 1367…The most obvious support is at the rising white channel bottom and SMA100, currently around 1315.2-1318. If the channel breaks down again, the SMA200 will reach the purple channel line later this month, probably around 1300.
Although this is getting monotonous, I’ll settle for a fairly predictable 4-5% move every few weeks. This brings our total for the year up to about 19.4%, not shabby considering that GC is essentially flat on the year.
Feb 8: Analog Details “[Gold] has dropped 4.1% since reversing where expected in late Jan, and just reached fanline and double channel support [1321.] Could it finally be ready to tag 1377-1380?” Bottomed that day, rallied to 1364 over the following week (+2.51%.)
Feb 15: Where to, Next? “GC might have run out of steam here [1360.] Cautious types might want to take profits, while the daredevils out there remain focused on 1380.” Topped out the following day at 1364 (+2.95%.)
Feb 27: Powell’s French Toast “Gold is getting clobbered…our analog suggests a Mar 1 turning point. The SMA100 should be around 1303 by then and would be a better bounce spot.” Bottomed on Mar 1 at 1303.60 (+4.15%.)
Mar 27: Algos to Markets – All Better “GC, which tagged its 1362 resistance yet again, has retreated once more. It still has a good shot at 1380, but only if/when DXY finally breaks down.” Reached 1369.40 today (+5.05%.)
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When something’s range bound like GC has been, it raises the obvious question: when will it break out/down, and what will it take?
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