We went long gold at 1286 back on Mar 6 with the expectation that we’d get a bounce up to 1346, but recognizing that there was more potential downside. From The Trade War: A Year Later:
GC has reached the 1286 target we laid out on Feb 21. It has clearly overshot its channel backtest, so more downside is warranted. However, DXY’s uncertainty is weighing on it. I’d take profits here and try a long position with tight stops. A bounce up to the purple channel top at 1346 (yes, again) wouldn’t surprise me.
The initial bounce only reached 1325. Gold tripped our stops on Apr 16, tagging our next lower target (1267.90 versus our target of 1268.40) on April 23. It liked that target so much it tagged it twice more before finally lifting off on May 21. On Friday, it finally reached our 1346.70 target. We’ll take a fresh look, and evaluate the potential for a breakout.
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