Play It Again, Mario

It’s the bulls’ favorite broken record, more easing from the ECB:

“The (European) Treaty requires that our actions are both necessary and proportionate to fulfil our mandate and achieve our objective, which implies that the limits we establish on our tools are specific to the contingencies we face. If the crisis has shown anything, it is that we will use all the flexibility within our mandate to fulfill our mandate — and we will do so again to answer any challenges to price stability in the future…”

The euro’s response was minimal.But, Trump’s response was plenty loud.

You’d think that since S&P futures ramped nearly 20 points, he’d be pleased. Perhaps no one has explained how algos work.

More important than ES ramp job, the 10Y dropped through its former lows from Sep 2017, opening the door to our 17.45 target.We’ve seen many instances in the past where a Draghi-inspired ramp job fell apart shortly after the markets opened.  A strong move in the bond market, however, should not be ignored. Stay tuned.

continued for members

Not much happening here yet.

Oil and gas continue to look vulnerable — though, remember, CL has a habit of ramping into the API inventory report on Tuesday afternoons.  It hasn’t closed above its SMA10 since May 21. VIX has, for the time being, broken down below its SMA50 and the falling white midline.  This is probably a head fake, but it merits close watching.Back to bonds for a moment… note that ZN has finally topped its former highs.  It has further to go, but that move might not happen all at once.  The more aggressive it is, the more it could impact stocks. And, on to stocks themselves…  If SPX and ES push through their .786s, the next stop is theoretically their .886s at 2928.44 and 2934.75 respectively. GLTA…

Comments

One response to “Play It Again, Mario”

  1. MichaelNisar Avatar
    MichaelNisar

    Need possible scenario for how we may get to 3050 in a future article. IMHO, expecting the pullback which may be short lived (few days?) after hawkish FED meeting conclusion is correct. However, in this market, gotta believe China trade good news or something else to make our triple top in the markets (2018-2019) perfect for next 1-2 year bear market. Still like your 2138 target – but not so much the timing. Trump leaves us a pullback to exactly where he started? He was more famous (or infamous) in the 80s if that is where he leaves things. Your point today about the USD vs. Gold is a good one to consider (medium-long term).