As we wait to see if the latest tag of the SMA50 results in yet another bounce (8th in a row) to new highs……or is just another head fake, with lower prices to come……we turn our attention to currencies, gold and silver – which are all at inflection points. Gold, for instance, is threatening to break down again.

continued for members…First, the big picture for stocks – which have a green light to decline now that a big options expiration is out of the way. Of course, that hasn’t mattered before.

SPX didn’t quite reach its SMA50, so we’ll be watching closely to see whether the indices stall here at their channel tops. So far, VIX is suggesting the downturn isn’t quite over. But, this could change with a drop through 18ish and the TL from Sep 2. As discussed yesterday, oil and gas’ romps higher should be over for now. This elevates currencies’ role in propping up stocks. At this time, it isn’t looking very bullish.  Although USDJPY is bouncing (a backtest) after yesterday’s breakdown……EURUSD is seeing a sharp downturn… …which is seeing it fall back through its SMA20 and SMA50 toward the backtest targets we’ve had in place for months.

This is sending DXY higher, of course – preserving the dashed yellow TL and potentially setting up a test of the white flag pattern top.  The EURUSD and DXY moves are clearly bearish for stocks.Gold and silver have each fallen below their purple channel bottoms again.  For GC, this threatens a trend going back to Aug 2018.…and opens up targets such as 1587 and my favorite: 1520. SI’s downside targets are much less clear – only that it should be shorted, with much greater downside if it falls below 22.40ish.Note that losing this support would also mean losing the lower dashed red TL.  The nearest reasonable support below 22.40 would be20 (round number), followed by the red .618 at 18.79.BTC is still above the cloud and SMA200 after tagging both the other day. But, I don’t expect the bounce to last. I’d definitely want to be short below the SMA200 – currently at 45897.60.UPDATE:  3:45 PM

Another one of those days where stocks are all over the map. ES/SPX are back to the top of the falling white channels… …but neither has actually tagged their SMA50s yet (though both can now do so without making a lower low if they like.)

Although VIX broke down below the rising red TL and SMA10, it’s back above both now. And, it was very careful not to drop through the falling purple TL of support – a ray of hope for bears.