Charts I’m Watching: Sep 17, 2021

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Welcome to another day of churn, with breakdowns averted and breakouts merely head fakes (at least so far) as we continue to play cat and mouse with the 50-DMA.

continued for members…

The difference between this and the last few previous days is that ES has completed a bearish 10/20 cross.

SPX is very close to doing to the same. And, VIX remains in a bullish stance, with support holding so far. So far, this setup is very reminiscent of Mar 4-5, 2021 when ES completed a bearish 10/20 cross while tagging its SMA50. The setup on the 4th, from: https://pebblewriter.com/next-steps-3/… …and the setup on the 5th……with the final outcome.

The other dips to the SMA50 were over with much more quickly.

Bottom line, ES has a chance to tag its SMA50 (4431.46) without making a new low. SPX is still 10-12 points away from its (4435.46ish), but it whiffed last time as well.

On the currency front, USDJPY is still bouncing/backtesting… …as EURUSD continues melting down……and DXY continues to levitate.The overall effect on stocks is benign, but could turn bearish is USDJPY dips back below 108.18 or DXY breaks above 93.89.

Gold and silver remain in a precarious position, with SI especially vulnerable should it lose the flag pattern support at 22.40. Note that it is about to complete a bearish 10/20 cross.

Oil and gas are falling as expected, but the path to those SMA200 tags is likely to be slow and at prices higher than recent lows. Last, TNX continues to go nowhere, burrowing into the vertex of a narrowing triangle.UPDATE: 11:00 AM

ES has tagged its SMA50, slightly exceeding it… …in an apparent nod to facilitating SPX’s potential tag.UPDATE: 4:00 PM

Not exactly a big surprise, but VIX closed at the top of the falling white channel. Meaning…this could break either way. The usual smackdown would result in a nice rally off the SMA50, while a spike in VIX from here would open up all those nice downside targets.