I love it when a plan comes together.  From Pins and Needles on Feb 4…

And, from this morning…This fits in nicely with our economic model and is helping to drive rates toward our next downside target.Futures jumped 40 points on the Feb 28 announcement of 2.6% Q4 GDP.  Do you suppose they’ll shed 40 points on today’s downward revision to 2.2%?

continued for members…

Oil broke down from the little white channel we had going yesterday and is threatening a breakdown of the rising wedge without ever having tagged its SMA200 as happened in 2015.

BTW, this was all before Trump’s latest Tweet directing OPEC to lower prices.

Futures have regained all of their overnight losses and are sitting flat at the moment.  ES hasn’t broken out……primarily because VIX hasn’t broken down — at least yet.

Tomorrow is the end of the first quarter, so we’re likely seeing some propping up for reporting’s sake (not to mention the Lyft IPO.)

But, the downside case remains intact.

At least the bond market thinks so.Note that our yield curve model is taking part in delaying any further declines.  As soon as the 2s10s drops through the white TL, stocks will sink.

On the currency front, everything is still on hold.  USDJPY is biding time……as is EURUSD. As weak as the USD should be, the euro is even weaker.DXY might yet reach 97.94 — though the intersection of the red TL and white channel bottom is coming up on Apr 2.