ES is up slightly while DJIA futures are down over 500 points on the meltdown in UNH.Meanwhile, Trump — who appointed Jay Powell in 2017 — is calling for Powell to be terminated.

“Jerome Powell of the Fed, who is always TOO LATE AND WRONG, yesterday issued a report which was another, and typical, complete ‘mess!’ Trump wrote. “Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!”

It’s surprising that it took this long, as lower interest rates would mitigate at least some of the damage that Trump’s tariffs have done to the market. As is obvious to anyone who has ever taken Econ 101, lower interest rates would also risk even higher inflation than Trump’s tariffs will cause.

So the Fed is caught between a rock and a stagflationary place. They can deal with rising inflation or with a slowing economy. Whichever they choose, the other is likely to suffer.

continued for members…

It looks like ES is setting up a little H&S pattern that targets 5000ish.

Note that GC officially reached our 3344.80 target. CL and RB are both higher again, putting pressure on the 10Y…

…which is still hanging on to its channel backtest. Now, for some really bearish charts…

The market is closed tomorrow, so we’ll see everyone again on Monday.

Have a wonderful Easter!