Mortgage applications fell short, but retail sales beat and industrial production slumped. All in all, a mixed bag that supports the stagflation narrative. The algos aren’t happy.

continued for members…

Every time I start to wonder if stocks can recover, I look at the COMP chart – which to me remains very bearish and likely heading to new lows at 14,485 or 13,873.Remember, there’s a very substantial overlap between SPX and COMP.

Note that the divergence between the dollar and the 10Y continues.For those riding the gold rally, note that it’s closing in on our next upside target – the 261.8 extension at 3344.

While silver has not kept up, it is back above its red channel midline and SMA200. It’s currently testing its SMA20 and 50, so it could take another run at 35.24. And, new highs would open up our 38.60 target.The inflation picture remains complicated. Oil and gas have broken down due to expectations of slowing economic activity. They’re bouncing a bit, but remain below recent lows.  CL in particular seems likely to make a lower low, with 53.87 an attractive target.

TNX remains broken out, but now featuring a backtest of the red channel it broke out of and a subsequent rise.

The 2s10s backtested the red TL it recently broke above. It appears likely to continue rising as the 10Y is making higher highs and the 2Y is making lower lows.

continuing…