The EURUSD, which bottomed when stocks did last March, has officially reached potential reversal territory at our 1.2336 target.

At the same time, the 2s10s has bounced off support and shot higher. Per our yield curve model – which has been early but never wrong – this is a quite bearish development.And, oil – which jumped the shark over the past 24 hours – has tagged our 50.22 target.Even XLF is due to reach a reversal zone today (29.8) as rates have shot higher in the wake of the Georgian runoff.

Either this is the start of a chart-busting rally, or things are about to get very ugly right as ES’ 50-day SMA has reached its Dec 21 lows.

And, it all comes down to whether the USD can hold its recent lows.

continued for members…It looks truly dicey, with DXY bending but not breaking this morning.…and the USDJPY not quite at support. The most troublesome development for the bears: the 10Y – shooting higher……and ZN breaking down… …which could also spell trouble for GC and SI, which are in the process of trying to break out and backtest recent overhead resistance. XLF should get a shot at 29.80 on the open. But, it’s a potential reversal point. ES’ SMA50 has now reached the Dec 21 lows, so ES can backtest it without making a lower low. Of course, it would also help form a big fat H&S Pattern.No surprise – much will depend on how well VIX can remain suppressed.  Off 3% with ES down 20 points – why not? I’m still pounding the table on CL and RB – which have strong technical and fundamental reasons to move sharply lower over the next three months. More later…