pebblewriter

That Trick Never Works

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rockyAs in the old Rocky & Bullwinkle cartoons, the ECB might have pulled a rabbit out of their hats, or it might be something else entirely.  The headlines will be very positive, and investors will no doubt breathe a sigh of relief.  But, anyone with their eyes wide open will recognize the “solution” as nothing more than can kicking.

The futures have been predictably ramped to a very positive opening, with ES nearly back to the SMA50/.618 Fib combo at 2090.

2015-07-13 ES daily 0606As for SPX, our upside targets from Friday are unchanged.

continued for members…

The first hurdle will be the falling red channel top at 2094-2095 (also the SMA100 @ 2095.16) with a secondary target of the .618 at 2100 (also the SMA50 @ 2099.75.)

2015-07-13 SPX daily 0606 2015-07-13 SPX daily 0605

UPDATE:  9:47 AM

That didn’t take long.  For those willing to hazard a short, we should get a pullback here at 2095.16, with leading targets the SMA20 at 2088 and then the former high at 2083.74.  Please manage your stops carefully.

2015-07-13 SPX 60 0646Note that USDJPY has also run into resistance at the rising red channel midline.

2015-07-13 USDJPY 60 0638UPDATE:  2:18 PM

I’m bailing on that short call from earlier.  Clearly the algos are in complete control.  I’d go neutral at this point, as whatever gains SPX makes today are likely to be limited to the .618 at 2100 — not worth the aggravation for a 5 point gain from here at 2095.

2015-07-13 EURUSD daily 1118

Note that the gains have come despite the drop in EURUSD.  It’s a divergence that usually doesn’t last very long.2015-07-13 SPX 5 1118

 

 

 

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