VIX: Not a Coincidence

When COMP bounced at 10,572.33 on Friday, a mere 7.19 above its June 16 lows, it might have struck some as a coincidence.  It wasn’t. It was a well-coordinated effort to ensure that new lows were avoided – at least for the time being.The usual culprit: VIX.  For the 6th session in a row and … continue reading →

(The Latest) Moment of Truth

As we’ve discussed several times over the past month, VIX’s trend line from Jan 24 was overdue for a revisit. Now that we’ve got it, will VIX nosedive as usual or are we in for something decidedly less bullish? The algos are geared up for a bounce. continued for members… … continue reading →

VIX at a Crossroads

For months, VIX has facilitated higher equity prices – plumbing new lows, breaking down, refusing to rise in cases of obvious market distress. Today, it reached a trend line off the previous highs, all of which corresponded with sizeable bounces in the equity markets. It’s an extremely important test for bulls. continued for members… … continue reading →

Fed Meeting on Deck

It’s unusual for stocks to sell off in the lead up to an FOMC meeting. Its also unusual for a bearish pattern such as a Head and Shoulders pattern to complete during those days.  Yet, here we are. As has been the case since late August, the only thing preventing a severe downturn (aside from … continue reading →

Pretty Soon, You’re Talking Real Money

Apparently, investors aren’t quite as sanguine about inflation as it seemed. After slightly overshooting our upside target from February, SPX plunged 4.32% – about $1.5 trillion in market cap. Trillion-and-a-half here, trillion-and-a-half there, pretty soon you’re talking real money.  It was the worst day in the markets since March 2020 and one of the worst … continue reading →

Inflation Rises

August CPI came in hot, rising 0.1% in August instead of the consensus 0.1% decline. Core was even worse: 0.6% versus 0.3% consensus. The annual print also disappointed, coming in at 8.3% versus expectations of 8.0% or less.Having slightly overshot our 4153 target overnight, ES is now reversing sharply.continued for  members… … continue reading →