Small Business Recession Warning

If small businesses are the backbone of the economy, we’re in deep trouble. So says the NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index, which reached an all-time low last month. From the report: The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped 3.6 points in June to 89.5, marking the sixth consecutive month below the 48-year average of 98. … continue reading →

Should We Fear a Yield Curve Inversion?

It seems like everyone’s talking about the yield curve. Will it invert? If so, when? Would it imply or even precipitate a recession? How would it affect Fed policy? What would it mean for the stock market? Since our work focuses on forecasting markets, let’s set aside for the moment whether an inversion means a … continue reading →