pebblewriter

Tag: fibonacci

  • Charts I’m Watching: Jan 17, 2025

    Futures are up moderately ahead of housing data on a continuing pullback in interest rates.

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  • FOMC Day: Dec 18, 2024

    Futures are struggling after an overnight ramp job driven by VIX’s retreat from its 200-day moving average.  Aside from the technicals, we see more and more analysts echoing our view that a rate cut makes little sense at this time.

    Our charts indicate three distinct and very concerning tripwires for equity investors which, depending on what the FOMC decides, suggest substantial downside.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Dec 2, 2024

    Futures are flat as we enter the final month of a pretty solid year.

    Questions remain, however, regarding the economy’s ability to withstand the coming policy changes.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Sep 4, 2024

    Lots of targets were tagged yesterday, beginning with SPX which nailed our 50-day moving average target.

    There’s a reason, however, that futures are off even more this morning.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Aug 27, 2024

    Futures are off moderately following yesterday’s reversal, the 6th session in a row that ES failed to surpass its .886 Fib retracement.

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  • Update on Gold and Silver: Aug 20, 2024

    In our last dedicated Update on Gold and Silver in April, we noted that gold had reached our Fibonacci target of 2466.50 but could have further to go.

    GC is fairly straightforward. There’s a large IH&S pattern which completed around Mar 7 targeting 2557, a short distance above the white 1.618 at 2466.50.

    GC reached 2557 this morning.

    It’s interesting that it’s reaching overhead resistance at the same time as SPX and at the same time that DXY has reached our next downside target.

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  • Update on RUT: Jul 23, 2024

    A lot has happened for RUT in the past week. It was only 11 days ago that we updated its chart, suggesting RUT would reach 2282 by the end of the year.

    RUT’s reversal at its .618 in April set up either a Gartley or Bat pattern, meaning a move to its .786 at 2282.27 or its .886 at 2364.78.  If we extend the dashed red trend line to the right, we get an intersection with the .786 at the end of the year – a very common scenario. While the .786 in December is a logical next target, an equally compelling case can be made for the .886 in September or October.

    Don’t look now, but RUT pushed past the red TL we discussed, allowing RUT to tag 2282 (well, 2278) late last week.

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  • PPI: Lower Than Expected

    In contrast to yesterday’s CPI print, PPI came in below estimates at 0.2% headline and core. Futures erased their sharp overnight losses which saw them nail our next downside target and now point to modest gains.

    A bounce here would be more convincing if SPX were to also reach its 50-day moving average.

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  • Another Blowout Jobs Report

    NFP came in at 303K vs 200K estimates, a huge beat which, combined with a decline in the unemployment rate, argues against any near term rate cuts.

    ES is all over the map this morning, but has given up much of its overnight ramp and is approaching our next downside target. With CPI coming out next week and a likely military escalation in the Middle East, ES will do well to hold its 50-day moving average.

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  • Breakdown/Breakout

    In a repeat of the most effective algo move of the past 10+ years, VIX broke down following the Fed’s no-news rate decision and press conference yesterday.

    As always, this allowed equities to leapfrog an area of stubborn overhead resistance. continued for members… (more…)