pebblewriter

Tag: ES

  • Charts I’m Watching: Sep 18, 2023

    Futures are off slightly as we approach the open, with an FOMC rate decision and plenty of economic data in the week ahead.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Sep 15, 2023

    The OPEX overnight ramp faltered with news of the UAW strike. Futures are currently off slightly despite VIX falling to levels not seen since Jan 2020.

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  • CPI Tops Estimates: Sep 13, 2023

    August CPI came in at 0.6% MoM and 3.7% YoY, slightly higher than expectations. Core CPI was 0.3% MoM and 4.3% YoY, also higher than expectations. This is in line with our forecast, driven largely by higher costs for rent, transportation, and energy.

    Futures are flat ahead of the open… …with VIX making lower lows on algo trading. Rising inflation, driven largely by YoY comps for energy prices, should make a Fed pause less likely.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Sep 12, 2023

    Futures gave back most of yesterday’s gains overnight as the August CPI print approaches.

    Our gas price model suggests headline CPI is due for a significant increase.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Sep 11, 2023

    Futures are up about 0.50% percent on a rebound in tech shares.

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  • Food for Thought

    There’s some good research on marketwatch.com this morning that illustrates the fact that no interest rate inversion (10s1s) in the past 70 years occurred without a subsequent recession. The average lag was about 14 months, meaning that we’re now officially overdue.

    Furthermore, none of the post-inversion equity rallies lasted. Every single one was completely reversed, resulting in a bear market.  Food for thought.

    It’s another quiet morning so far, with futures flat for the most part after testing our 20-day moving average target yesterday.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Sep 6, 2023

    Futures have slipped about 10 points on quiet trading.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Sep 5, 2023

    Futures are off moderately this morning on low holiday volume.

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  • PCE On the Rise

    After falling for months, YoY PCE ticked higher in July: 3.3% versus 3.0% in June. Excluding food and energy, the print was 4.2% versus 4.1% in June.The data pared some of the overnight ramp, with futures easing lower as we approach the opening bell.

    In other economic news, personal spending (0.8% MoM) rose faster than expected while income (0.2% MoM) grew slower than expected – not an optimal combination when trying to avoid a recession.

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  • GDP Revised Lower

    Second quarter GDP was revised downward from 2.4% to 2.1%, providing a much needed boost to bulls hoping for another Fed pause. Of course, it also provides bears with some evidence of an economic slowdown.

    Futures have been hovering around flat all morning.

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