Markets are at all-time highs as we await the FOMC’s latest decision on interest rates. Note that we’re going on 21 months of a yield curve inversion, the longest since August 1978 to May 1980. Interestingly, the market was flirting with new, all-time highs back then as well. Also interesting, that was one of many … continue reading →
In his January press conference, Fed Chief Jay Powell accepted some responsibility for the sharp rise in housing prices during the pandemic. “We’re also well aware that when we cut rates at the beginning of the pandemic, for example, the … housing industry was helped more than any other industry.” This statement implies that, were … continue reading →
Futures are flat this OPEX morning as algos weigh the impact of higher than expected inflation, driven largely by rising oil and gas prices.continued for members… … continue reading →
February PPI came in at twice expectations: 0.6% versus 0.3%. In a replay of the CPI print, stocks dipped for a few seconds before resuming their overnight ramp as algos were more focused on VIX dropping through its 50-DMA just in time for OPEX. VIX did pop above the 50-DMA…for several seconds. It got better.Indicators … continue reading →
The last time VIX cratered to below its 50-day moving average in two days, ES popped over 3%. Then, as now, SPX had committed the egregious sin of dipping below its 10-day moving average as it approached important Fibonacci resistance. The difference, now, is that SPX is on the brink of a breakout above that … continue reading →
February headline CPI came in at 0.4% versus 0.3% expected (and January.) Core CPI registered a 0.4% rise versus .03% forecast and 0.4% prior. YoY, headline was up 3.15%, up from 3.09% in January and a slight beat of the 3.1% expected, while core rose 3.8%, down from 3.9% in January. Shelter and gas price … continue reading →
Blink, and you might have missed the selloff this morning when nonfarm payrolls came in much higher than expected but the January print was revised sharply lower.Fortunately, the algos were on it, immediately crashing VIX to a point where a 15-pt decline in ES turned into a 15-pt gain. This should put SPX at its … continue reading →
We’ve waited a very long time for SPX’s 50-DMA to reach a great spot for a small pullback. It’s finally here. Will the market cooperate? NOTE: I will be out of the office between March 4-6, returning on March 7. continued for members… … continue reading →
January headline PCE registered a 0.3% increase MoM (0.4% Core) which was in line with most estimates. YoY, headline PCE rose 2.4% versus 2.6% in December, while core PCE rose 2.8%, down from 2.9% in December. In other economic data, personal income rose to 1.0% MoM from 0.3% in December and personal spending rose at … continue reading →
Futures are off moderately in the lead up to tomorrow’s important PCE print. continued for members… … continue reading →