Futures are moderately lower, testing the 50-day moving average as ripples from the longest ever government shutdown reach more critical areas of the economy.
Note that ES has now completed a small H&S Pattern that targets 6535.
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Futures are up moderately ahead of housing data on a continuing pullback in interest rates.
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Futures are struggling after an overnight ramp job driven by VIX’s retreat from its 200-day moving average. Aside from the technicals, we see more and more analysts echoing our view that a rate cut makes little sense at this time.
Our charts indicate three distinct and very concerning tripwires for equity investors which, depending on what the FOMC decides, suggest substantial downside.
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Futures are flat as we enter the final month of a pretty solid year.
Questions remain, however, regarding the economy’s ability to withstand the coming policy changes.
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Futures are off modestly on a slow news day as investors continue to game out how the election will affect their portfolios.
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PPI came in at 0.0% MoM and 1.8% YoY, supporting expectations of a 25 bps rate cut in November. Algos approved and are holding yesterday’s trading range. These expectations, however, are probably wrong.
As we’ve discussed often over the past few months, the decline in goods prices from 0.6% in Jul to 0.0% in Aug and -0.2% in Sept was driven primarily by energy prices (-2.7% in Sept), a trend which will reverse in October.
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Futures are flat ahead of tomorrow’s CPI print.
Yesterday’s price action put ES in the most ambiguous position possible: poised for a reversal or a breakout.
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Futures have rebounded almost .50% after testing recent lows yesterday.
Traders remain focused on tomorrow’s FOMC minutes and Thursday’s CPI print.
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Futures are slightly lower on the last day of a pretty impressive Q3 at +8.7%.
Can the rally keep going in October?
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Futures are up slightly ahead of another data-heavy week: S&P Services and Manufacturing PMIs today, Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing, Richmond Fed, and the Conference Board confidence data tomorrow, and Initial Jobless Claims, Q2 GDP, and Core PCE later this week.
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