Futures are up moderately, primarily on the DXY stall and the usual overnight VIX smackdown. But, most attention will be focused on Thursday’s CPI print.
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Tag: DX
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Minute by Minute
The Fed will release its June minutes this afternoon, potentially shedding some light on why they paused their rate hikes. But, thanks to plenty of Fedspeak – including Jay Powell’s testimony – we already know that they are as confused and conflicted as everyone else. As always, they are more concerned about markets than anything else.
Futures are off about 0.50% as we approach the open.
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The Big Picture: Feb 27, 2023
Last week completed the backtests we’d been expecting, with ES, SPX, COMP, DJIA and NKD all holding important technical support.
While the fundamental picture might not justify these prices, the algos are satisfied. And, until price discovery reemerges (if it does), the algos are all that matter.continued for members… (more…)
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Q3 GDP Beats Estimates
Q3 GDP came in at 2.6%, beating the 2.3% consensus and of course Q2’s -0.6%. While good news for the economy, it does little to advance the narrative that the Fed might be ready to pare future rate hikes.
Nevertheless, VIX fell…
…so futures rose slightly on the news.
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Charts I’m Watching: Oct 17, 2022
Pretty standard fare for an OPEX week…futures have ramped 1.6% higher on a bounce in USDJPY and CL and a trounce in VIX.
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Good News is Bad News
We’ve been used to the bad news is good news meme for such a long time, it feels weird to even type that. That’s the reality, however, when investors are already counting the days till the Fed’s easing cycle and we get 528,000 new jobs instead of the 258,000 expected.
The tightening might just have to last a little longer than the bulls have suggested. Though, the efforts being made to lower oil prices are bound to start paying dividends in the longer run. CL reached our next downside target. 
Could this slide turn into something real? Could ES do something so drastic as drop below its 10-day moving average? Can VIX survive the usual 9:30 smackdown?continued for members… (more…)
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Charts I’m Watching: Aug 4, 2022
Markets are flat following yesterday’s 1.5% move higher engineered by a stunning 12% VIX smackdown off Wednesday’s highs.
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Waiting in the Wings
This morning feels a whole lot like yesterday morning, with futures ramping higher on the latest smackdown in VIX. Of course, these maneuvers can be an effort to force a breakout in stocks. But, they can also be an effort to put a little more air under stocks in advance of a downturn.
With plenty of important earnings still to be announced, the Gazprom threat, and a potential ECB rate hike just ahead, there’s plenty or risk waiting in the wings.continued for members… (more…)
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Charts I’m Watching: Jun 23, 2022
Futures just backtested the 10-day moving average and our analog trendline, leaving the door open for a pullback – as long as VIX doesn’t get clobbered again.
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Oil: Back in the Groove
WTI spent May 2020 through Feb 2022 in a fairly well-defined channel (below, in white) as it recovered from its pandemic lows. It broke out on Mar 1, however, topping 100 and taking only 5 sessions to reach our 130 target which wasn’t schedule to happen until December.
Since then, it’s seen a series of fits and starts, holding an internal trend line and flirting with reentering the white channel. It’s flirting no more. Against the backdrop of a gas tax holiday and significant demand destruction, it has dropped through the channel top and the 100-day moving average.continued for members… (more…)
