January headline PCE registered a 0.3% increase MoM (0.4% Core) which was in line with most estimates. YoY, headline PCE rose 2.4% versus 2.6% in December, while core PCE rose 2.8%, down from 2.9% in December.
In other economic data, personal income rose to 1.0% MoM from 0.3% in December and personal spending rose at a 0.2% rate versus 0.7% in December.
Algos cheered the data, with futures swinging from a moderate loss to a moderate gain in seconds.
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BTCUSD came within 126 of an important Fib level that could represent significant overhead resistance. Traders would do well to limit their exposure here.
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Futures have broken out on a new VIX “breakdown” and the runup in NVDA shares – now the 4th largest component of the S&P500.
This seems off to us, as Powell is likely to come out more hawkish than expected in his Jackson Hole comments.
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Futures are up 0.40% largely on bullish algo positioning…
…with VIX now down 13.4% since Friday’s 200-day moving average tag.
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Futures are up modestly in advance of the Jackson Hole symposium. 
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As far back as May 11, our charts called for BTC to revert to the pink channel bottom – which at the time was around 22,200 and awful darned close to the 200-day moving average.
June rolled around, and the downside forecast still made sense at 24,000ish – even after BTC whiffed during that slide.
It looked every bit as logical (though our patience was wearing thin) at the end of July at about 26,000.
But, we had to wait all the way to Aug 17 to see our forecast pay off with a winning number of 26,266.
Sometimes, charts work that way. You might get what you want, but only after exercising extreme patience. Go figure.
Futures are up moderately, primarily on the DXY stall and the usual overnight VIX smackdown. But, most attention will be focused on Thursday’s CPI print.
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With the July meltup finally behind us, futures are off moderately.
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It’s a big week for the market as many of the most important stocks are reporting amidst ongoing questions about the strength of the economy.
This morning, however, it’s all about the BoJ again. After effectively raising interest rates, they’ve jumped into the market to make sure interest rates don’t actually rise – boosting the USDJPY and, as a result, equity futures.
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Equities have ramped almost 12% since the last Fed meeting – ignoring the prospect of higher interest rates for a longer period of time. Given the oil market’s recent breakout and the obvious base effect on inflation, we see a good chance of Powell presenting a more hawkish stance than the overbought market is prepared for…
…raising the prospect of spike in the 10Y to 4.76% by mid-August. One of the few developments that could prevent it: a collapse in oil/gas prices.
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