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For the fifth time in the past week, DX is threatening to break out. Today, it’s courtesy of a “leaked” threat by the ECB to lower interest rates even further. Somehow, even more negative interest rates are supposed to help the eurozone with its various and sundry problems.
DX is, yet again, pushing above its .886 Fib — if only intra-day — but, faces serious overhead resistance just above.
EURUSD is also pushing below its .886. But, as we discussed in our last update, faces serious support just below.
Will they both break out/down in the coming days? Only central bankers know for sure. But, it’s important to realize that it’s all just a smoke screen.
That’s right. The real action is taking place daily in USDJPY and CL — both of which are obviously affected by the dollar’s actions. Both are being used in a virtual tag team of well-timed bounces to instigate rallies and prevent drops.
The pattern lately has been quite consistent. USDJPY is letting some air out after its rising channel from mid-Oct recently broke down. After ramping stocks higher the day before and resetting overnight, it drops just before the open. 
CL, for its part, drops overnight, then rallies at the open to provide cover for USDJPY’s drop. An hour or so into the session, USDJPY finds its feet and starts a steady climb throughout the day to pump stocks higher — or at least prevent further drops.
Note that today was different. Very different. And, there’s an important reason why.
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