The overnight news cycle has all the earmarks of events spiraling out of control.  Yet, consider that:

• EURUSD and CL bottomed right where we anticipated
• DX and TNX topped where expected
• USDJPY has bailed out of the rising channel from mid-October as expected
• SPX should tag the downside targets we identified several days ago.

In other words, the news cycle has actually accommodated our charts, confirming tops/bottoms we called and enabling other targets to be met.

continued for members…

USDJPY has almost reached the ,618 Fib, though the SMA100 and 200 are starting to look like real possibilities.

Look for SPX to easily reach the SMA20/purple .618 at 2079 or the white .786 at 2077.45 early on.  Note, also, the presence there of the strategically important white channel midline. If it doesn’t hold, the SMA200 started to look interesting.VIX will break out this morning. And, TNX continues to settle lower, in defiance of the higher interest rate story being spun by the Fed. UPDATE:  9:32 AM

SPX just reached our initial target.  We’ll look for signs of a bounce here.UPDATE:  9:36 AM

SPX seems to be firming here as USDJPY is breaking out.  Back to long, though note that the SMA20 and .618 are now overhead resistance. UPDATE:  9:55 AM

If I’ve drawn the red channel corrrectly, then SPX should reverse here.  I’ll try switching back to a short position with tight stops.  Why tight stops?  Note that the SMA20 is now back to support.UPDATE:  10:36 AM

USDJPY just reversed at horizontal support, so be careful in here.The bigger test will come when ES reaches TL support. UPDATE:  10:54 AM

SPX getting a bounce here from USDJPY and ES – poking back above the broken TL.  Switching back to long, but it could easily run out of juice at 2073-2074.  Very controlled at the moment.

UPDATE:  11:11 AM

Nice bounce up to the 5-min SMA20.  I’d take profits here and revert to short, though I suspect it’s too early. I don’t think TPTB mind a tag of 2065, they just want to delay it.  Remember, most of the rewards bears are reaping lately are coming in the opening minutes when the “market” gaps down.

A typical move here would be for SPX to get supported by the rebounding 5-min SMA10 (red) and get a boost up to 2079 as the blue SMA50 reaches it in an hour or so.CL, back above that TL, could blow it up quite easily if it doesn’t stop at the purple midline.UPDATE:  11:24 AM

I don’t think it’s going to play out or even wait for the SMA10.  Reverting to long here for 2079ish.UPDATE:  11:27 AM

I’m more comfortable shorting here.  The SMA50 should serve as a good barometer for stops.Euro close coming up.

UPDATE:  11:30 AM

Quick CL-fueled spurt through the SMA50 means I’m stopped out. I’m happy in cash, though will reevaluate if SPX drops through the SMA20 later. UPDATE:  11:57 AM

SPX just tagged the channel top as ES nears the megaphone top (2083.50ish).  This would make a good reversal in here, especially if SPX would tag the yellow SMA100 first (2086.44.)UPDATE:  12:03 PM

Will try another short here, but keep an eye on USDJPY and (especially) CL.  Note that SPX has closed this morning’s gap.  A good initial target is the SMA20/.618 again (2079.44.)  While the SMA200 is still in the crosshairs, it might be delayed until tomorrow morning. UPDATE:  12:40 PM

Algos are working hard to ramp SPX higher on the back of the SMA10.  CL is doing most of the work, though USDJPY could easily get swept up at any moment. UPDATE:  1:00 PM

Ditching the short on any move north of 2085.30.UPDATE:  10:05 AM

Blew out the short position at 2085.31.  I’d like to take another crack at it, but it’s hard to tell when they’re going to turn off the algos.  The only thing that might turn it around now would be USDJPY making new lows and/or CL dropping below the purple channel bottom. UPDATE:  1:54 PM

I’ll try a short here as SPX is an a position to backtest the broken red channel at the SMA20/.168 if it so chooses.  CL is about to test the purple channel bottom and USDJPY the latest horizontal support.  Not a bad setup for a short, as it’ll either push below the SMS200 at 2088 or not.  Tight stops recommended. UPDATE:  2:05 PM

Oh well, it was worth a shot.  Back to cash after the potential drop…didn’t.UPDATE:  2:12 PM

Trying a short again here. UPDATE:  2:30 PM

Nice move down to the 5-min SMA200, but CL bounced back through broken support/resistance again.  Keep an eye on USDJPY, which also broke below a falling wedge bottom.  It has a clear path to 122.13, but will they allow it today during market hours? UPDATE:  2:36 PM

Shutting down the short here on a ridiculous bounce by USDJPY.  This is predatory HFT stuff, folks, at its finest.  Break support just enough to get bears jumping in, then ramp the hell out of it to trap them upside down.UPDATE:  2:54 PM

Things are very definitely under control.  CL is back to the purple channel bottom……and, USDJPY has not only broken out of the falling wedge, but the middle horizontal support level.

For its part, SPX is no doubt heading toward another top-of-the-hour high.  Note that each of the previous spikes today came within 5 minutes of the top of the hour. It seems unlikely that we’ll get another shot at 2079, let alone 2065 today.  But, stranger things have happened.  Should SPX decline below 2088 again, I’d sure think about it.

UPDATE:  3:36 PM

For daredevils/gluttons for punishment, here’s your last shot at a short set-up.  Target is 2079, but I’d be shocked if it reached it today.There’s an interim target at 2084.50 in case you don’t want to ride too close to the edge.

UPDATE:  3:40 PM

Probably won’t play out, but what the heck?  Those who can hedge or watch closely overnight might consider holding short till the morning.