Conventional wisdom says no one rings the bell at market tops. We’re ringing it anyway. If our analog is correct, this is about as high as stocks will go. If SPX pops above 3047, then there’s more upside to come (with an asterisk referring to central banks of course.) But, until then, momentum is with the bears.
“Targeting 2% inflation and bringing down unemployment” made for a nice central bank slogan. But, it’s really been all about running interest rates into the ground in order to generate higher prices. In that sense, this has been a rousing success.
We’ll never know, however, what the economy would have accomplished without the so-called “wealth effect.” And, we’ll never know what might have happened if prices had been allowed to clear via market forces.
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