Conventional wisdom says no one rings the bell at market tops.  We’re ringing it anyway.  If our analog is correct, this is about as high as stocks will go.  If SPX pops above 3047, then there’s more upside to come (with an asterisk referring to central banks of course.)  But, until then, momentum is with the bears.

“Targeting 2% inflation and bringing down unemployment” made for a nice central bank slogan. But, it’s really been all about running interest rates into the ground in order to generate higher prices.  In that sense, this has been a rousing success.

We’ll never know, however, what the economy would have accomplished without the so-called “wealth effect.”  And, we’ll never know what might have happened if prices had been allowed to clear via market forces.

Today’s poster child: McDonalds Corp.  See if you can spot the point at which the board decided to hop on the buyback bandwagon.Stay tuned.  It should be an interesting next few days.

continued for members…

The current outlook for SPX.  Remember, there is always a chance we get a pop up to or near 3047 today or tomorrow — but, an equal chance the top was at 3027.98 on the 26th — two sessions and less than 1% early.

ES is getting a nice head start — off nearly 20 points.  Although the fan line has been broken, confirmation won’t come until the SMA10 at 3002.18 (SPX 3002.07) breaks down. VIX has experienced a 10/20 cross.USDJPY is still loitering…

…as is CL.RB is almost to our next downside target — but will likely surprise with a breakdown.And, the 10Y rate is still poised for a fear-induced breakdown.

I’m running to the airport, will post again later this afternoon.

UPDATE:  3:40 PM

ES and SPX bounced off their SMA10s and have recovered about half their losses with 20 minutes left.  VIX has broken out nicely……though CL and RB have bounced strongly to support stocks.USDJPY still sitting on the fence with a bounce that made no new headway.Remember, patterns sometimes bust.  AAPL could report blowout earnings this afternoon.  The Fed could go uberdovish tomorrow. Kudlow could announce (again) that the trade war is over.  Use stops and keep a close eye on things.  And, keep in mind that this analog calls for a long, drawn-out affair that won’t run its course until next May or even later.

GLTA.