September retail sales increased more than expected, rising 0.4% versus 0.2% expected. Ex-auto, they increased 0.5%. At the same time, initial unemployment claims came in below expectations: 241K versus 273K and 260K prior.

These data further support the notion of smaller rate cuts going forward – if not an outright pause.

For now, however, the futures added to their overnight gains on the prints, with ES approaching our 5942 target.

continued for members…

Note that at this target, ES runs into the purple channel line that stymied several previous rallies. Note that equities are ignoring EURUSD’s breakdown, the result of the ECB’s more aggressive rate cut outlook which featured a 25 bps cut today only 5 weeks after the last one.USDJPY continues to creep higher, though. Net net, DXY has now poked above its SMA200. This has helped keep CL’s decline going… …though RB’s decline has been gentler. Needless to say, today’s data has boosted the 10Y.

continuing…