Starts and permits came in roughly in line with expectations, satisfying both the Fed watchers and the futures, which barely reacted.

Construction fell just enough that it won’t interrupt the Fed’s inflation fighting efforts, but not so much that the soft landing folks are alarmed.

continued for members…

All of our charts are unchanged.

The oil market continues to settle back down, though I think there’s a very good chance of an Israel strike on Iran – probably before the election, when Biden’s hands are tied.