This day means something different to each of us.  For many, it’s a touchstone: a reminder not to take life for granted, to make thoughtful choices.  Wishing all of you a thoughtful day…

Don’t judge each day by the harvest you reap, but by the seeds that you plant.
Robert Louis Stevenson

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The USDJPY has backed off the .786 Fib line (white) and the purple channel midline and appears set to backtest the broken white channel top.

DX bounced nicely off the rising white channel bottom on Monday, backtesting the falling white channel midline in the process.  It’s due for its rally to resume, but hasn’t yet made up its mind.

And, ES has slipped below its red channel midline and backed off yesterday’s highs in the process.

I’ll explore a short position here at 1681 and see if we can put together a few points to the downside to flesh out the red channel — the bottom of which is currently around 1667.  Stops around 1683.25.

The 4-hr chart, as it often does, puts things into perspective a little better.

continued for members…The big picture is still up in the air, though as we discussed yesterday, the odds have tilted in the bulls favor following a bearish channel folding and a breakout from an already bullish channel and rising wedge.

I have a slew of conference calls to attend to this week, so won’t be posting very frequently unless circumstances require it.  Watch the channels — especially the rising red one on ES.  It’s carrying the ball for the bulls now, so it’s the first warning we’ll get of a breakdown in the rally.

UPDATE:  11:35 AM

ES just squirted above our 1683.25 stop, so back to the long side here.

I’m going to keep a close eye on it, however, as we’re again tagging the midline — a backtest — and because SPX just closed the gap at 1684.83.  The .786 is just above at 1687.83, so high whipsaw potential with this long position.

UPDATE:  2:10 PM

Another thrilling day here in the markets…  ES just tagged its .786 at 1687.75 and could take a pause here, though SPX is still 4 points shy of its at 1692.08 — so, odds are ES will wait.

However, ES’s .886 is way up at 1695.85, I’ll take an interim short position here at 1687.50 with very tight stops and see if we can scalp a few points.