Q3 2018: Buh-Bye

It was an unusually strange quarter in an unusually strange year.  Somehow, we got through it.  But, it wasn’t all that fun to trade.

The past few days were a great case in point: strong ramp job into the FOMC announcement, followed by an even sharper spike, followed by the rug being pulled out from under, followed by another sharp spike, followed by today’s plunge.  I have slid the SMA20 tag to the right three days in a row.

On the other hand, we’ve had some nice wins.  USDJPY tagged our 113.59 target overnight.  Yes, it came three weeks later than expected (Sep 6).  But, at least it happened.   Then……and, now.Of course, by delaying the tag USDJPY avoided a backtest of the large white channel.  The last time this happened the pair’s subsequent slump did a number on stocks.

And, while we’re talking about slumps…don’t look now, but VIX finally tagged our next upside target.

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