It was an unusually strange quarter in an unusually strange year.  Somehow, we got through it.  But, it wasn’t all that fun to trade.

The past few days were a great case in point: strong ramp job into the FOMC announcement, followed by an even sharper spike, followed by the rug being pulled out from under, followed by another sharp spike, followed by today’s plunge.  I have slid the SMA20 tag to the right three days in a row.

On the other hand, we’ve had some nice wins.  USDJPY tagged our 113.59 target overnight.  Yes, it came three weeks later than expected (Sep 6).  But, at least it happened.   Then……and, now.Of course, by delaying the tag USDJPY avoided a backtest of the large white channel.  The last time this happened the pair’s subsequent slump did a number on stocks.

And, while we’re talking about slumps…don’t look now, but VIX finally tagged our next upside target.

continued for members…

If it’s able to make it to the SMA200 at 14.80, we could see SPX and ES dip below those SMA20s and do some channel tagging.  Lots of options, with my favorite being SPX 2896.49 and ES 2897.50.

Working to prevent that: DXY has rallied back above its neckline and EURUSD has broken down. It’s a nonsense move, especially considering the 10Y gave up its fakeout breakout.And, oil and gas continue to be generally supportive.

UPDATE:  3:55 PM

Another day without tagging the SMA20.  It’s only increasing a little over 1 point/day, so I guess this was all about preserving a particular price level at quarter-end.  In any case, here’s the setup for Monday.  VIX still hasn’t committed, but looks a little closer to a breakout —

— even though the triangle suggests otherwise.

SPX is still in limbo, with nothing much holding it up here other than VIX and USDJPY — which has yet to break down if it’s going to.

I’m taking Monday off for a little R&R, but will post first thing in the morning.  Have a great weekend, everyone.

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